Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
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Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Market Risk
Market risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in interest rates, credit spreads, equity prices, or foreign exchange rates, as well as other relevant market rate or price changes. The volatility and liquidity in the markets in which the underlying assets are traded directly influence market risk. The following is a discussion of our primary risk exposures, including interest rate risk, investment credit risk, concentration risk, liquidity risk, and equity price risk, and how those exposures are currently managed as of December 31, 2023.
Interest Rate Risk
We invest primarily in fixed maturity investments, which comprised 85% of our invested assets at December 31, 2023. The value of the fixed maturity portfolio is subject to interest rate risk. As market interest rates decrease, the value of the portfolio increases with the opposite holding true in rising interest rate environments. We do not hedge our exposure to interest rate risk. A common measure of the interest sensitivity of fixed maturity assets is effective duration, a calculation that utilizes maturity, coupon rate, yield, and call terms to calculate an expected change in fair value given a change in interest rates. The longer the duration, the more sensitive the asset is to market interest rate fluctuations. Duration is analyzed at least quarterly to ensure that it remains in the targeted range.
A sensitivity analysis is used to measure the potential loss in future earnings, fair values, or cash flows of interest-sensitive instruments resulting from one or more selected hypothetical changes in interest rates and other market rates or prices over a selected period. The following pro forma information is presented assuming a 100-basis point parallel increase in interest rates across the yield curve at December 31 of each year and reflects the estimated effect on the fair value of our fixed maturity portfolio.
Fixed maturities interest-rate sensitivity analysis
| (dollars in thousands) | At December 31, | |||||||||||||
| 2023 | 2022 | |||||||||||||
| Fair value of fixed maturity portfolio | $ | 961,241 | $ | 894,661 | ||||||||||
| Fair value assuming 100-basis point rise in interest rates | $ | 935,444 | $ | 868,919 | ||||||||||
| Effective duration (as a percentage) | 2.7 | 2.9 | ||||||||||||
While the fixed maturity portfolio is sensitive to interest rates, the future principal cash flows that will be received by contractual maturity date are presented below at December 31, 2023 and 2022. Actual cash flows may differ from those stated as a result of calls, prepayments, or defaults.
Contractual repayments of principal by maturity date
| (in thousands) | ||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturities: | December 31, 2023 | |||||||||||||
| 2024 | $ | 81,072 | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | 96,519 | |||||||||||||
| 2026 | 79,385 | |||||||||||||
| 2027 | 116,418 | |||||||||||||
| 2028 | 137,065 | |||||||||||||
| Thereafter | 481,895 | |||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 992,354 | ||||||||||||
| Fair value | $ | 961,241 |
| (in thousands) | ||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturities: | December 31, 2022 | |||||||||||||
| 2023 | $ | 24,561 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | 104,164 | |||||||||||||
| 2025 | 125,785 | |||||||||||||
| 2026 | 79,745 | |||||||||||||
| 2027 | 116,571 | |||||||||||||
| Thereafter | 500,905 | |||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 951,731 | ||||||||||||
| Fair value | $ | 894,661 |
Investment Credit Risk
Our objective is to earn competitive returns by investing in a diversified portfolio of securities. Our portfolios of fixed maturity securities, equity securities and, to a lesser extent, short-term investments are subject to credit risk. This risk is defined as the potential loss in fair value resulting from adverse changes in the borrower's ability to repay the debt. We manage this risk by performing upfront underwriting analysis and ongoing reviews of credit quality by position and for the portfolio in total. We do not hedge the credit risk inherent in our fixed maturity and equity securities investments.
Generally, the fixed maturities in our portfolio are rated by external rating agencies. If not externally rated, we rate them internally on a basis consistent with that used by the rating agencies. We classify all fixed maturities as available-for-sale securities, allowing us to meet our liquidity needs and provide greater flexibility to appropriately respond to changes in market conditions.
The following tables show our fixed maturity investments by rating*(1)*:
| At December 31, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (dollars in thousands) | Amortized cost | Fair value | Percent of total | |||||||||||||||||
| AAA, AA, A | $ | 537,751 | $ | 515,175 | 54 | % | ||||||||||||||
| BBB | 324,538 | 318,362 | 33 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total investment grade | 862,289 | 833,537 | 87 | |||||||||||||||||
| BB | 51,564 | 50,170 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||
| B | 65,453 | 65,251 | 7 | |||||||||||||||||
| CCC, CC, C, and below | 13,247 | 12,283 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total non-investment grade | 130,264 | 127,704 | 13 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 992,553 | $ | 961,241 | 100 | % | ||||||||||||||
| At December 31, 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (dollars in thousands) | Amortized cost | Fair value | Percent of total | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AAA, AA, A | $ | 518,088 | $ | 479,413 | 54 | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BBB | 318,801 | 300,900 | 33 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total investment grade | 836,889 | 780,313 | 87 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BB | 45,784 | 41,978 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| B | 66,574 | 62,530 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CCC, CC, C, and below | 11,888 | 9,840 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total non-investment grade | 124,246 | 114,348 | 13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 961,135 | $ | 894,661 | 100 | % |
(1) Ratings are supplied by S&P, Moody's, and Fitch. The table is based upon the lowest rating for each security.
We are also exposed to a concentration of credit risk with the Exchange. See the "Transactions/Agreements with Related Parties, Intercompany Receivables" section of Item 7. "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" contained within this report for further discussion of this risk.
Concentration Risk
While our portfolio is well diversified within each market sector, there is an inherent risk of concentration in a particular industry or sector. We continually monitor our level of exposure to individual issuers as well as our allocation to each industry and market sector against internally established policies. See the "Financial Condition" section of Item 7. "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" contained within this report for details of investment holdings by sector.
Liquidity Risk
Periods of volatility in the financial markets can create conditions where fixed maturity investments, despite being publicly traded, can become illiquid. However, we actively manage the maturity profile of our fixed maturity portfolio such that scheduled repayments of principal occur on a regular basis.
Equity Price Risk
Our portfolio of equity securities, which primarily includes nonredeemable preferred stock, is carried on the Statements of Financial Position at estimated fair value. Equity securities are exposed to the risk of potential loss in estimated fair value resulting from an adverse change in prices ("price risk"). We do not hedge our exposure to price risk inherent in our equity investments.
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