Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

General

We are exposed to market risks related to the volatility of crude oil and refined product prices. We employ various strategies, including the use of commodity derivative instruments, to hedge the risks related to these price fluctuations. We are also exposed to market risks related to changes in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates. As of December 31, 2018, we did not have any financial derivative instruments to hedge the risks related to interest rate fluctuations; however, we have used them in the past, and we continually monitor the market and our exposure and may enter into these agreements again in the future. We are at risk for changes in fair value of all of our derivative instruments; however, such risk should be mitigated by price or rate changes related to the underlying commodity or financial transaction.

We believe that our use of derivative instruments, along with our risk assessment procedures and internal controls, does not expose us to material adverse consequences. While the use of derivative instruments could materially affect our results of operations in particular quarterly or annual periods, we believe that the use of these instruments will not have a material adverse effect on our financial position or liquidity.

See Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data – Notes 17 and 18 for more information about the fair value measurement of our derivatives, as well as the amounts recorded in our consolidated balance sheets and statements of income. We do not designate any of our commodity derivative instruments as hedges for accounting purposes.

Commodity Price Risk

Refining & Marketing

Our strategy is to obtain competitive prices for our products and allow operating results to reflect market price movements dictated by supply and demand. We use a variety of commodity derivative instruments, including futures and options, as part of an overall program to hedge commodity price risk. We also authorize the use of the market knowledge gained from these activities to do a limited amount of trading not directly related to our physical transactions.

We use commodity derivative instruments on crude oil and refined product inventories to hedge price risk associated with inventories above or below LIFO inventory targets. We also use derivative instruments related to the acquisition of foreign-sourced crude oil and ethanol blended with refined petroleum products to hedge price risk associated with market volatility between the time we purchase the product and when we use it in the refinery production process or it is blended. In addition, we may use commodity derivative instruments on fixed price contracts for the sale of refined products to hedge risk by converting the refined product sales to market-based prices. The majority of these derivatives are exchange-traded contracts but we also enter into over-the-counter swaps, options and over-the-counter options. We closely monitor and hedge our exposure to market risk on a daily basis in accordance with policies approved by our board of directors. Our positions are monitored daily by a risk control group to ensure compliance with our stated risk management policy.

Midstream

NGL and natural gas prices are volatile and are impacted by changes in fundamental supply and demand, as well as market uncertainty, availability of NGL transportation and fractionation capacity and a variety of additional factors that are beyond MPLX’s and ANDX’s control. A portion of MPLX’s and ANDX’s profitability is directly affected by prevailing commodity prices primarily as a result of processing or conditioning at its own or third‑party processing plants, purchasing and selling or gathering and transporting volumes of natural gas at index‑related prices and the cost of third‑party transportation and fractionation services. To the extent that commodity prices influence the level of natural gas drilling by MPLX’s and ANDX’s producer customers, such prices also indirectly affect profitability. MPLX has a committee comprised of senior management that oversees risk management activities, continually monitors the risk management program and adjusts its strategy as conditions warrant. Derivative contracts utilized for crude oil, natural gas and NGLs are swaps and options traded on the OTC market and fixed price forward contracts. As a result of MPLX’s current derivative positions, it believes that it has mitigated a portion of its expected commodity price risk through the fourth quarter of 2019. MPLX would be exposed to additional commodity risk in certain situations such as if producers under‑deliver or over‑deliver products or if processing facilities are operated in different recovery modes. In the event that MPLX has derivative positions in excess of the product delivered or expected to be delivered, the excess derivative positions may be terminated. ANDX does not hedge its exposure using commodity derivative instruments because of the minimal impact of commodity price risk on its liquidity, financial position and results of operations.

MPLX management conducts a standard credit review on counterparties to derivative contracts, and it has provided the counterparties with a guaranty as credit support for its obligations. A separate agreement with certain counterparties allows MarkWest Liberty Midstream to enter into derivative positions without posting cash collateral. MPLX uses standardized agreements that allow for offset of certain positive and negative exposures in the event of default or other terminating events, including bankruptcy.

Open Derivative Positions and Sensitivity Analysis

The following table includes the composition of net losses/gains on our commodity derivative positions for the years ended December 31, 2018 and 2017, respectively.

See Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data – Note 18 for additional information on our open derivative positions at December 31, 2018.

Sensitivity analysis of the incremental effects on income from operations (“IFO”) of hypothetical 10 percent and 25 percent increases and decreases in commodity prices for open commodity derivative instruments as of December 31, 2018 is provided in the following table.

We remain at risk for possible changes in the market value of commodity derivative instruments; however, such risk should be mitigated by price changes in the underlying physical commodity. Effects of these offsets are not reflected in the above sensitivity analysis.

We evaluate our portfolio of commodity derivative instruments on an ongoing basis and add or revise strategies in anticipation of changes in market conditions and in risk profiles. Changes to the portfolio after December 31, 2018 would cause future IFO effects to differ from those presented above.

Interest Rate Risk

Our use of fixed or variable-rate debt directly exposes us to interest rate risk. Fixed rate debt, such as our senior notes, exposes us to changes in the fair value of our debt due to changes in market interest rates. Fixed rate debt also exposes us to the risk that we may need to refinance maturing debt with new debt at higher rates or that our current fixed rate debt may be higher than the current market. Variable-rate debt, such as borrowings under our revolving credit facilities, exposes us to short-term changes in market rates that impact our interest expense. See Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data – Note 19 for additional information on our debt.

Sensitivity analysis of the effect of a hypothetical 100-basis-point change in interest rates on long-term debt, including the portion classified as current and excluding capital leases, as of December 31, 2018 is provided in the following table. Fair value of cash and cash equivalents, receivables, accounts payable and accrued interest approximate carrying value and are relatively insensitive to changes in interest rates due to the short-term maturity of the instruments. Accordingly, these instruments are excluded from the table.

See Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data – Note 17 for additional information on the fair value of our debt.

Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk

We are impacted by foreign exchange rate fluctuations related to some of our purchases of crude oil denominated in Canadian dollars. We did not utilize derivatives to hedge our market risk exposure to these foreign exchange rate fluctuations in 2018.

Counterparty Risk

We are subject to risk of loss resulting from nonpayment by our customers to whom we provide services or sell natural gas or NGLs. We believe that certain contracts would allow us to pass those losses through to our customers, thus reducing our risk, when we are selling NGLs and acting as our producer customers’ agent. Our credit exposure related to these customers is represented by the value of our trade receivables. Where exposed to credit risk, we analyze the customer’s financial condition prior to entering into a transaction or agreement, establish credit terms and monitor the appropriateness of these terms on an ongoing basis. In the event of a customer default, we may sustain a loss and our cash receipts could be negatively impacted.

We are subject to risk of loss resulting from nonpayment or nonperformance by counterparties or future commission merchants. Our credit exposure related to commodity derivative instruments is represented by the fair value of contracts with a net positive fair value at the reporting date. These outstanding instruments expose us to credit loss in the event of nonperformance by the counterparties to the agreements. Should the creditworthiness of one or more of our counterparties decline, our ability to mitigate nonperformance risk is limited to a counterparty agreeing to either a voluntary termination and subsequent cash settlement or a novation of the derivative contract to a third party. In the event of a counterparty default, we may sustain a loss and our cash receipts could be negatively impacted. This counterparty credit risk does not apply to our embedded derivative as the overall value is a liability. We regularly review the creditworthiness of counterparties and futures commission merchants and enter into master netting agreements when appropriate.

These quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk include forward-looking statements with respect to management’s opinion about risks associated with the use of derivative instruments. These statements are based on certain assumptions with respect to interest rates as well as market prices and industry supply of and demand for crude oil, other refinery feedstocks, refined products, natural gas, NGLs and ethanol. If these assumptions prove to be inaccurate, future outcomes with respect to our use of derivative instruments may differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements.