Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK (dollars in millions, except per ounce and per pound amounts).
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Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK (dollars in millions, except per ounce and per pound amounts).
Metal Prices
Changes in the market price of gold significantly affect our profitability and cash flow. Gold prices can fluctuate widely due to numerous factors, such as demand; forward selling by producers; central bank sales, purchases and lending; investor sentiment; the strength of the U.S. dollar; inflation, deflation, or other general price instability; and global mine production levels. Changes in the
market price of copper, silver, lead and zinc also affect our profitability and cash flow. These metals are traded on established international exchanges and prices generally reflect market supply and demand, but can also be influenced by speculative trading in the commodity or by currency exchange rates.
Decreases in the market price of metals can significantly affect the value of our product inventory, stockpiles and leach pads, and it may be necessary to record a write-down to the net realizable value. Net realizable value represents the estimated future sales price based on short-term and long-term metals prices, less estimated costs to complete production and bring the product to sale. The primary factors that influence the need to record write-downs of our stockpiles, leach pads and product inventory include short-term and long-term metals prices and costs for production inputs such as labor, fuel and energy, materials and supplies as well as realized ore grades and recovery rates. As part of our regular review of economic assumptions management determined to increase the long-term gold price assumption from $1,300 to $1,500 during the third quarter of 2020. The significant assumptions in determining the stockpile, leach pad and product inventory adjustments for each mine site reporting unit at December 31, 2020 included production cost and capitalized expenditure assumptions unique to each operation, a short-term and long-term gold price of $1,874 and $1,500 per ounce, respectively, a short-term and long-term copper price of $3.25 and $3.00 per pound, respectively, a short-term and long-term silver price of $24.39 and $18.00 per ounce, respectively, a short-term and long-term lead price of $0.86 and $1.05 per pound, respectively, a short-term and long-term zinc price of $1.19 and $1.30 per pound, respectively, a short-term and long-term U.S. to Australian dollar exchange rate of $0.73 and $0.77, respectively, a short-term and long-term U.S. to Canadian dollar exchange rate of $0.77 and $0.80, respectively, a short-term and long-term U.S. dollar to Mexican Peso exchange rate of $0.05 and $0.05, respectively and a short-term and long-term U.S. dollar to Argentinian Peso exchange rate of $0.01 and $0.02, respectively.
The net realizable value measurement involves the use of estimates and assumptions unique to each mining operation regarding current and future operating and capital costs, metal recoveries, production levels, commodity prices, proven and probable reserve quantities, engineering data and other factors. A high degree of judgment is involved in determining such assumptions and estimates and no assurance can be given that actual results will not differ significantly from those estimates and assumptions. For information concerning the sensitivity of our stockpiles and ore on leach pads to changes in metal price, see the Critical Accounting Policies section in Item 7, Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Consolidated Financial Condition and Results of Operation.
Decreases in the market price of metals can also significantly impact our impairment analysis for long-lived assets and goodwill. An impairment loss is measured and recorded for long-lived assets based on the estimated fair value of the long-lived assets being tested for impairment and their carrying amounts. An impairment loss is measured and recorded for goodwill based on the carrying amount of the reporting unit and its fair value. Fair value is typically determined through the use of an income approach utilizing estimates of discounted future cash flows or a market approach utilizing recent transaction activity for comparable properties. The estimated undiscounted cash flows used to assess recoverability of long-lived assets and the fair value of reporting units are derived from current business plans, which are developed using short-term price forecasts reflective of the current price environment and management’s projections for long-term average metal prices. For information concerning the sensitivity of our impairment analysis over long-lived assets and goodwill to changes in metal price, see the Critical Accounting Policies section in Item 7, Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Consolidated Financial Condition and Results of Operation.
Foreign Currency
In addition to our operations in the United States, we have significant operations and/or assets in Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia and Ghana. All of our operations sell their gold, copper, silver, lead and zinc production based on U.S. dollar metal prices. Foreign currency exchange rates can fluctuate widely due to numerous factors, such as supply and demand for foreign and U.S. currencies and U.S. and foreign country economic conditions. Fluctuations in the local currency exchange rates in relation to the U.S. dollar can increase or decrease profit margins, cash flow and Costs applicable to sales per ounce/pound to the extent costs are paid in local currency at foreign operations. Additionally, if a sustained weakening of the U.S. dollar in relation to other foreign currencies that impact our cost structure were not mitigated by offsetting increases in the U.S. dollar metal prices or by other factors, the amount of proven and probable reserves in the applicable foreign country could be reduced as certain proven and probable reserves may no longer be economic. The extent of any such reduction would be dependent on a variety of factors, including the length of time of any such weakening of the U.S. dollar and management’s long-term view of the applicable exchange rate. Foreign currency exchange rates in relation to the U.S. dollar have not had a material impact on our determination of proven and probable reserves in the past. However, future reductions of proven and probable reserves could result in reduced sales and increased Depreciation and amortization and, depending on the level of reduction, this could also result in impairments of long-lived assets and goodwill.
Commodity Price Exposure
Our provisional metal sales contain an embedded derivative that is required to be separated from the host contract for accounting purposes. The host contract is the receivable from the sale of the respective metal concentrates at the prevailing indices’ prices at the time of sale. The embedded derivative, which does not qualify for hedge accounting, is marked to market through earnings each period prior to final settlement. The below sensitivity analysis is based on a historical price volatility of the respective metal prices.
At December 31, 2020, Newmont had gold sales of 224,000 ounces priced at an average of $1,890 per ounce, subject to final pricing over the next several months. Each 10% change in the price for provisionally priced gold sales would have an approximate $29 effect on our Net income (loss) attributable to Newmont stockholders. The London Bullion Market Association P.M. closing settlement price at December 31, 2020 for gold was $1,888 per ounce.
At December 31, 2020, Newmont had copper sales of 12 million pounds priced at an average of $3.52 per pound, subject to final pricing over the next several months. Each 10% change in the price for provisionally priced copper sales would have an approximate $3 effect on our Net income (loss) attributable to Newmont stockholders. The LME closing settlement price at December 31, 2020 for copper was $3.51 per pound.
At December 31, 2020, Newmont had silver sales of 4 million ounces priced at an average of $26.50 per ounce, subject to final pricing over the next several months. Each 10% change in the price for provisionally priced silver sales would have an approximate $7 effect on our Net income (loss) attributable to Newmont stockholders. The London Bullion Market Association closing settlement price at December 31, 2020 for silver was $26.45 per ounce.
At December 31, 2020, Newmont had lead sales of 25 million pounds priced at an average of $0.90 per pound, subject to final pricing over the next several months. Each 10% change in the price for provisionally priced lead sales would have an approximate $1 effect on our Net income (loss) attributable to Newmont stockholders. The LME closing settlement price at December 31, 2020 for lead was $0.89 per pound.
At December 31, 2020, Newmont had zinc sales of 54 million pounds priced at an average of $1.24 per pound, subject to final pricing over the next several months. Each 10% change in the price for provisionally priced zinc sales would have an approximate $4 effect on our Net income (loss) attributable to Newmont stockholders. The LME closing settlement price at December 31, 2020 for zinc was $1.24 per pound.
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