Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK (dollars in millions, except per ounce and per pound amounts).
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Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK (dollars in millions, except per ounce and per pound amounts).
Metal Prices
Changes in the market price of gold significantly affect our profitability and cash flow. Gold prices can fluctuate widely due to numerous factors, such as demand; forward selling by producers; central bank sales, purchases and lending; investor sentiment; the strength of the U.S. dollar; inflation, deflation, or other general price instability; and global mine production levels. Changes in the market price of copper, silver, lead and zinc also affect our profitability and cash flow. These metals are traded on established international exchanges and prices generally reflect market supply and demand, but can also be influenced by speculative trading in the commodity or by currency exchange rates.
Decreases in the market price of metals can also significantly affect the value of our product inventory, stockpiles and leach pads, and it may be necessary to record a write-down to the net realizable value, as well as significantly impact our carrying value of long-lived assets and goodwill. Refer to Part II, Item 7 in our annual report on Form 10-K, for the year ended December 31, 2020 for information regarding the sensitivity of our impairment analyses over long-lived assets and goodwill to changes in metal price.
Net realizable value represents the estimated future sales price based on short-term and long-term metals prices, less estimated costs to complete production and bring the product to sale. The primary factors that influence the need to record write-downs of our stockpiles, leach pads and product inventory include short-term and long-term metals prices and costs for production inputs such as labor, fuel and energy, materials and supplies as well as realized ore grades and recovery rates. The significant
assumptions in determining the stockpile, leach pad and product inventory adjustments for each mine site reporting unit at September 30, 2021 included production cost and capitalized expenditure assumptions unique to each operation, a short-term and long-term gold price of $1,790 and $1,500 per ounce, respectively, a short-term and long-term copper price of $4.25 and $3.00 per pound, respectively, a short-term and long-term silver price of $24.36 and $20.00 per ounce, respectively, a short-term and long-term lead price of $1.06 and $1.05 per pound, respectively, a short-term and long-term zinc price of $1.36 and $1.30 per pound, respectively, a short-term and long-term U.S. to Australian dollar exchange rate of $0.73 and $0.77, respectively, a short-term and long-term U.S. to Canadian dollar exchange rate of $0.79 and $0.80, respectively, a short-term and long-term U.S. dollar to Mexican Peso exchange rate of $0.05 and $0.05, respectively and a short-term and long-term U.S. dollar to Argentinian Peso exchange rate of $0.01 and $0.01, respectively.
The net realizable value measurement involves the use of estimates and assumptions unique to each mining operation regarding current and future operating and capital costs, metal recoveries, production levels, commodity prices, proven and probable reserve quantities, engineering data and other factors. A high degree of judgment is involved in determining such assumptions and estimates and no assurance can be given that actual results will not differ significantly from those estimates and assumptions.
Foreign Currency
In addition to our operations in the United States, we have significant operations and/or assets in Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia and Ghana. All of our operations sell their gold, copper, silver, lead and zinc production based on U.S. dollar metal prices. Foreign currency exchange rates can fluctuate widely due to numerous factors, such as supply and demand for foreign and U.S. currencies and U.S. and foreign country economic conditions. Fluctuations in the local currency exchange rates in relation to the U.S. dollar can increase or decrease profit margins, cash flow and Costs applicable to sales per ounce/ pound to the extent costs are paid in local currency at foreign operations.
Commodity Price Exposure
Our provisional concentrate sales contain an embedded derivative that is required to be separated from the host contract for accounting purposes. The host contract is the receivable from the sale of the respective metal concentrates at the prevailing indices’ prices at the time of sale. The embedded derivative, which is not designated for hedge accounting, is marked to market through earnings each period prior to final settlement.
We perform an analysis on the provisional concentrate sales to determine the potential impact to Net income (loss) attributable to Newmont stockholders for each 10% change to the average price on the provisional concentrate sales subject to final pricing over the next several months. Refer below for our analysis as of September 30, 2021.
| Provisionally Priced Sales Subject to Final Pricing | Average Provisional Price (per ounce/pound) | Effect of 10% change in Average Price (millions) | Market Closing Settlement Price (1) (per ounce/pound) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold (ounces/thousands) | 218 | $ | 1,744 | $ | 25 | $ | 1,743 | ||||||||||||||||
| Copper (pounds/millions) | 16 | $ | 4.09 | $ | 5 | $ | 4.10 | ||||||||||||||||
| Silver (ounces/millions) | 5 | $ | 21.53 | $ | 8 | $ | 22.04 | ||||||||||||||||
| Lead (pounds/millions) | 29 | $ | 0.95 | $ | 2 | $ | 0.96 | ||||||||||||||||
| Zinc (pounds/millions) | 62 | $ | 1.35 | $ | 6 | $ | 1.37 |
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(1)The closing settlement price as of September 30, 2021 is determined utilizing the London Metal Exchange for copper, lead and zinc and the London Bullion Market Association for gold and silver.
ITEM 4. CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES.
During the fiscal period covered by this report, the Company’s management, with the participation of the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer of the Company, carried out an evaluation of the effectiveness of the design and operation of the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”)). Based on such evaluation, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer have concluded that, as of the end of the period covered by this report, the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures are effective to ensure that information required to be disclosed by the Company in reports that it files or submits under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the required time periods and are designed to ensure that information required to be disclosed in its reports is accumulated and communicated to the Company’s management, including the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, as appropriate to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosure.
There were no changes in the Company’s internal control over financial reporting that occurred during the three months ended September 30, 2021, that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.
PART II—OTHER INFORMATION
ITEM 1. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS.
Information regarding legal proceedings is contained in Note 21 of the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements contained in this report and is incorporated herein by reference.
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