Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
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Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Market Risk
Market risk is defined as the risk of loss from changes in interest rates, equity prices and foreign currency exchange rates resulting from asset/liability mismatches where the change in the value of our liabilities is not offset by the change in value of our assets.
For additional information regarding the potential impacts of interest rate and other market fluctuations, as well as general economic and market conditions on our businesses and profitability, see Item 1A. “Risk Factors” above. For additional information regarding the overall management of our general account investments and our asset mix strategies, see “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—General Account Investments—Management of Investments” above. For additional information regarding our liquidity and capital resources, which may be impacted by changing market risks, see “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Liquidity and Capital Resources” above.
Market Risk Management
Management of market risk, which we consider to be a combination of both investment risk and market risk exposures, includes the identification and measurement of various forms of risk, the establishment of risk thresholds and the creation of processes intended to maintain risks within these thresholds while optimizing returns on the underlying assets or liabilities.
Our risk management process utilizes a variety of tools and techniques, including:
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Measures of price sensitivity to market changes (e.g., interest rates, equity index prices, foreign exchange);
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Asset/liability management;
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Stress scenario testing;
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Hedging programs; and
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Risk management governance, including policies, limits, and a committee that oversees investment and market risk.
For additional information regarding our overall risk management framework and governance structure, see “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Risk Management” above.
Market Risk Mitigation
Risk mitigation takes three primary forms:
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Asset/Liability Management: Managing assets to liability-based measures. For example, investment policies identify target durations for assets based on liability characteristics and asset portfolios are managed within ranges around them. This mitigates potential unanticipated economic losses from interest rate movements.
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Hedging: Using derivatives to offset risk exposures. For example, for our variable annuities business, potential living benefit claims resulting from more severe market conditions are hedged using derivative instruments.
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Management of portfolio concentration risk. For example, ongoing monitoring and management at the enterprise level of key rate, currency and other concentration risks support diversification efforts to mitigate exposure to individual markets and sources of risk.
Market Risk Related to Interest Rates
We perform liability-driven investing and engage in careful asset/liability management. Asset/liability mismatches create the risk that changes in liability values will differ from the changes in the value of the related assets. Additionally, changes in interest rates may impact other items including, but not limited to, the following:
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Net investment spread between the amounts that we are required to pay and the rate of return we are able to earn on investments for certain products supported by general account investments;
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Asset-based fees earned on assets under management or contractholder account values;
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Estimated total gross profits and the amortization of deferred policy acquisition and other costs;
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Net exposure to the guarantees provided under certain products; and
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Capital levels of our regulated entities.
We use duration and convexity analyses to measure price sensitivity to interest rate changes. Duration measures the relative sensitivity of the fair value of a financial instrument to changes in interest rates. Convexity measures the rate of change in duration with respect to changes in interest rates. We use asset/liability management and derivative strategies to manage our interest rate exposure by legal entity by matching the relative sensitivity of asset and liability values to interest rate changes, or controlling “duration mismatch” of assets and liability duration targets. In certain markets, capital market limitations that hinder our ability to acquire assets that approximate the duration of some of our liabilities are considered in setting duration targets. We consider risk-based capital and tax implications as well as current market conditions in our asset/liability management strategies.
We assess the impact of interest rate movements on the value of our financial assets, financial liabilities and derivatives using hypothetical test scenarios that assume either upward or downward 100 basis point parallel shifts in the yield curve from prevailing interest rates, reflecting changes in either credit spreads or the risk-free rate. The following table sets forth the net estimated potential loss in fair value on these financial instruments from a hypothetical 100 basis point upward shift as of December 31, 2021 and 2020. This table is presented on a gross basis and excludes offsetting impacts to insurance liabilities that are not considered financial liabilities under U.S GAAP. This scenario results in the greatest net exposure to interest rate risk of the hypothetical scenarios tested at those dates. While the test scenario is for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect our expectations regarding future interest rates or the performance of fixed income markets, it is a near-term, reasonably possible hypothetical change that illustrates the potential impact of such events. These test scenarios do not measure the changes in value that could result from non-parallel shifts in the yield curve which we would expect to produce different changes in discount rates for different maturities. As a result, the actual loss in fair value from a 100 basis point change in interest rates could be different from that indicated by these calculations. The estimated changes in fair values are inclusive of any assets or liabilities held-for-sale, but do not include separate account assets.
| As of December 31, 2021 | As of December 31, 2020(1) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Notional | Fair Value | Hypothetical Change in Fair Value | Notional | Fair Value | Hypothetical Change in Fair Value | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Financial assets with interest rate risk: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturities(2) | $ | 415,769 | $ | (43,547) | $ | 440,531 | $ | (47,271) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commercial mortgage and other loans | 67,998 | (3,069) | 68,676 | (3,010) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Derivatives with interest rate risk: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Swaps | $ | 269,823 | (1,748) | (5,389) | $ | 244,020 | 3,457 | (6,039) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Futures | 25,122 | 57 | (1,327) | 21,454 | 79 | (1,191) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Options | 97,101 | (187) | (209) | 52,093 | 1,384 | (616) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forwards | 38,394 | (159) | (73) | 41,214 | 86 | (49) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Synthetic GICs | 81,984 | 1 | 0 | 86,264 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Variable annuity and other living benefit feature embedded derivatives | (13,231) | 5,807 | (18,879) | 7,720 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Indexed universal life contracts | (1,436) | 205 | (1,334) | 170 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Indexed annuity contracts | (2,041) | (344) | (580) | (115) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total embedded derivatives(3) | (16,708) | 5,668 | (20,793) | 7,775 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Financial liabilities with interest rate risk(4): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short-term and long-term debt | 22,648 | 4,231 | 24,408 | 4,873 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Policyholders’ account balances—investment contracts | 103,064 | 3,520 | 110,473 | 3,791 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net estimated potential loss | $ | (40,195) | $ | (41,737) |
(1)Prior period amounts have been updated to conform to current period presentation.
(2)Includes assets classified as “Fixed maturities, available-for-sale, at fair value,” “Assets supporting experience-rated contractholder liabilities, at fair value” and “Fixed maturities, trading, at fair value.” Approximately $386 billion and $413 billion as of December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, of fixed maturities are classified as available-for-sale.
(3)Excludes any offsetting impact of derivative instruments purchased to hedge changes in the embedded derivatives. Amounts reported net of third-party reinsurance.
(4)Excludes approximately $356 billion and $360 billion as of December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, of insurance reserve and deposit liabilities which are not considered financial liabilities. We believe that the interest rate sensitivities of these insurance liabilities would serve as an offset to the net interest rate risk of the financial assets and liabilities, including investment contracts.
Under U.S. GAAP, the fair value of the embedded derivatives for certain features associated with variable annuity, indexed universal life, and indexed annuity contracts, reflected in the table above, includes the impact of the market’s perception of our NPR. For more information on NPR related to the sensitivity of the embedded derivatives to our NPR credit spread, see “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Accounting Policies & Pronouncements—Application of Critical Accounting Estimates—Sensitivities for Insurance Assets and Liabilities” above.
For an additional discussion of our variable annuity optional living benefit guarantees accounted for as embedded derivatives and related derivatives used to hedge the changes in fair value of these embedded derivatives, see “Market Risk Related to Certain Variable Annuity Products” below. For additional information about the key estimates and assumptions used in our determination of fair value, see Note 6 to the Consolidated Financial Statements. For information on the impacts of a sustained low interest rate environment, see “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Executive Summary—Impact of a Low Interest Rate Environment” above.
Market Risk Related to Equity Prices
We have exposure to equity risk through asset/liability mismatches, including our investments in equity securities held in our general account investment portfolio and unhedged exposure in our insurance liabilities, principally related to certain variable annuity living benefit feature embedded derivatives. Our equity-based derivatives primarily hedge the equity risk embedded in these living benefit feature embedded derivatives, and are also part of our capital hedging program. Changes in equity prices create risk that the resulting changes in asset values will differ from the changes in the value of the liabilities relating to the underlying or hedged products. Additionally, changes in equity prices may impact other items including, but not limited to, the following:
- Asset-based fees earned on assets under management or contractholder account value;
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Estimated total gross profits and the amortization of deferred policy acquisition and other costs; and
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Net exposure to the guarantees provided under certain products.
We manage equity risk against benchmarks in respective markets. We benchmark our return on equity holdings against a blend of market indices, mainly the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 for U.S. equities. We benchmark foreign equities against the Tokyo Price Index, and the MSCI EAFE, a market index of European, Australian, and Far Eastern equities. We target price sensitivities that approximate those of the benchmark indices.
We estimate our equity risk from a hypothetical 10% decline in equity benchmark market levels. The following table sets forth the net estimated potential loss in fair value from such a decline as of December 31, 2021 and 2020. While these scenarios are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect our expectations regarding future performance of equity markets or of our equity portfolio, they represent near-term reasonably possible hypothetical changes that illustrate the potential impact of such events. These scenarios consider only the direct impact on fair value of declines in equity benchmark market levels and not changes in asset-based fees recognized as revenue, changes in our estimates of total gross profits used as a basis for amortizing deferred policy acquisition and other costs, or changes in any other assumptions such as market volatility or mortality, utilization or persistency rates in our variable annuity contracts that could also impact the fair value of our living benefit features. In addition, these scenarios do not reflect the impact of basis risk, such as potential differences in the performance of the investment funds underlying the variable annuity products relative to the market indices we use as a basis for developing our hedging strategy. The impact of basis risk could result in larger differences between the change in fair value of the equity-based derivatives and the related living benefit features in comparison to these scenarios. In calculating these amounts, we include assets and liabilities held-for-sale, but exclude separate account equity securities.
| As of December 31, 2021 | As of December 31, 2020(1) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Notional | Fair Value | Hypothetical Change in Fair Value | Notional | Fair Value | Hypothetical Change in Fair Value | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Equity securities(2) | $ | 11,296 | $ | (1,130) | $ | 10,041 | $ | (1,004) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Equity-based derivatives(3) | $ | 103,944 | (1,095) | (934) | $ | 64,407 | (557) | 1,800 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Variable annuity and other living benefit feature embedded derivatives | (13,231) | (1,563) | (18,879) | (1,921) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Indexed universal life contracts | (1,436) | 54 | (1,334) | 59 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Indexed annuity contracts | (2,041) | 680 | (580) | 186 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total embedded derivatives(3)(4) | (16,708) | (829) | (20,793) | (1,676) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net estimated potential loss | $ | (2,893) | $ | (880) |
(1)Prior period amounts have been updated to conform to current period presentation.
(2)Includes equity securities classified as “Assets supporting experience-rated contractholder liabilities” and “Equity securities, at fair value.”
(3)The notional and fair value of equity-based derivatives and the fair value of embedded derivatives are also reflected in amounts under “Market Risk Related to Interest Rates” above, and are not cumulative.
(4)Excludes any offsetting impact of derivative instruments purchased to hedge changes in the embedded derivatives. Amounts reported net of third-party reinsurance.
Market Risk Related to Foreign Currency Exchange Rates
As a U.S.-based company with significant business operations outside of the U.S., particularly in Japan, we are exposed to foreign currency exchange rate risk related to these operations, as well as in our general account investment portfolio and other proprietary investment portfolios.
For our international insurance operations, changes in foreign currency exchange rates create risk that we may experience volatility in the U.S. dollar-equivalent earnings and equity of these operations. We actively manage this risk through various hedging strategies, including the use of foreign currency hedges and through holding U.S. dollar-denominated securities in the investment portfolios of certain of these operations. Additionally, our Japanese insurance operations offer a variety of non-yen denominated products which are supported by investments in corresponding currencies. While these non-yen denominated assets are economically matched to the currency of the product liabilities, the accounting treatment may differ for changes in the value of these assets and liabilities due to moves in foreign currency exchange rates, resulting in volatility in reported U.S. GAAP earnings. This volatility has been mitigated by disaggregating the U.S. and Australian dollar-denominated businesses in Gibraltar Life into separate divisions, each with its own functional currency that aligns with the underlying products and investments. For certain of our international insurance operations outside of Japan, we elect to not hedge the risk of changes in our equity investments due to foreign exchange rate movements. For further information, see “Management’s Discussion and
Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Impact of Foreign Currency Exchange Rates—Impact of products denominated in non-local currencies on U.S. GAAP earnings” above.
For our domestic general account investment portfolios supporting our U.S. insurance operations and other proprietary investment portfolios, our foreign currency exchange rate risk arises primarily from investments that are denominated in foreign currencies. We manage this risk by hedging substantially all domestic foreign currency denominated fixed income investments into U.S. dollars. We generally do not hedge all of the foreign currency risk of our investments in equity securities of unaffiliated foreign entities.
We manage our foreign currency exchange rate risks within specified limits, and estimate our exposure, excluding equity in our Japanese insurance operations, to a hypothetical 10% change in foreign currency exchange rates. The following table sets forth the net estimated potential loss in fair value from such a change as of December 31, 2021 and 2020. While these scenarios are for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect our expectations regarding future changes in foreign exchange markets, they represent reasonably possible near-term hypothetical changes that illustrate the potential impact of such events.
| As of December 31, 2021 | As of December 31, 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair Value | Hypothetical Change in Fair Value | Fair Value | Hypothetical Change in Fair Value | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Unhedged portion of equity investment in international subsidiaries and foreign currency denominated investments in domestic general account portfolio | $ | 3,375 | $ | 338 | $ | 3,490 | $ | 349 |
For additional information, see “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—General Account Investments—Portfolio Composition” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Results of Operations by Segment—International Businesses” above.
Derivatives
We use derivative financial instruments primarily to reduce market risk from changes in interest rates, equity prices and foreign currency exchange rates, including their use to alter interest rate or foreign currency exposures arising from mismatches between assets and liabilities. Our derivatives primarily include swaps, futures, options and forward contracts that are exchange-traded or contracted in the OTC market.
Our derivatives also include interest rate guarantees we provide on our synthetic GIC products. Synthetic GICs simulate the performance of traditional insurance-related GICs but are accounted for as derivatives under U.S. GAAP due to the fact that the policyholders own the underlying assets, and we only provide a book value “wrap” on the customers’ funds, which are held in a client-owned trust. Since these wraps provide payment of guaranteed principal and interest to the customer, changes in interest rates create risk such that declines in the market value of customers’ funds would increase our net exposure to these guarantees; however, our obligation is limited to payments that are in excess of the existing customers’ fund value. Additionally, we have the ability to periodically reset crediting rates, subject to a 0% minimum floor, as well as the ability to increase prices. Further, our contract provisions provide that, although participants may withdraw funds at book value, contractholder withdrawals may only occur at market value immediately, or at book value over time. These factors, among others, result in these contracts experiencing minimal changes in fair value, despite a more significant notional value.
Our derivatives also include those that are embedded in certain financial instruments, and primarily relate to certain optional living benefit features associated with our variable annuity products, as discussed in more detail in “Market Risk Related to Certain Variable Annuity Products” below. For additional information on our derivative activities, see Note 5 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
Market Risk Related to Certain Variable Annuity Products
The primary risk exposures of our variable annuity contracts relate to actual deviations from, or changes to, the assumptions used in the original pricing of these products, including capital markets assumptions, such as equity market returns, interest rates and market volatility and actuarial assumptions. For our capital markets assumptions, we manage our exposure to the risk created by capital markets fluctuations through a combination of product design elements, such as an automatic rebalancing element and inclusion of certain optional living benefits in our living benefits hedging program. In addition, we consider external reinsurance a form of risk mitigation as well as our capital hedge program. Certain variable annuity optional living benefit features are accounted for as embedded derivatives and recorded at fair value. The market risk sensitivities
associated with U.S. GAAP values of both the embedded derivatives and the related derivatives used to hedge the changes in fair value of these embedded derivatives are provided under “Market Risk Related to Interest Rates” and “Market Risk Related to Equity Prices” above.
For additional information regarding our risk management strategies, including our living benefit hedging program and other product design elements, see “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Results of Operations by Segment—Individual Annuities” above.
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