Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
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Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Market risk is the risk of erosion of our cash flows, earnings, asset values or equity due to adverse changes in commodity market prices, interest rates and foreign currency and inflation rates.
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MARKET RISK POLICIES
Sempra has policies governing its market risk management and trading activities. Sempra, SDG&E, SoCalGas and Sempra Infrastructure maintain separate risk management committees, organizations and processes to provide oversight of these activities for their respective businesses. The committees consist of senior officers who establish policy, oversee energy risk management activities, and monitor the results of trading and other activities to help ensure compliance with our stated energy risk management and trading policies. These activities include, but are not limited to, monitoring of market positions that create credit, liquidity and market risk. The respective oversight organizations and committees are independent from energy procurement departments.
Along with other tools, we use VaR and liquidity metrics to measure our exposure to market risk associated with commodity portfolios. VaR is an estimate of the potential loss on a position or portfolio of positions over a specified holding period, based on normal market conditions and within a given statistical confidence interval. We use a variance-covariance VaR model at a 95% confidence level. A liquidity metric is intended to monitor the amount of financial resources needed for meeting potential margin calls as forward market prices move. VaR and liquidity risk metrics are independently verified by the respective risk management oversight organizations.
SDG&E and SoCalGas use natural gas derivatives and SDG&E uses electricity derivatives to manage natural gas and electric price risk associated with servicing load requirements. The use of natural gas and electricity derivatives is subject to certain limitations imposed by company policy and regulatory requirements. SDG&E’s risk management and transacting activity plans for electricity derivatives are also required to be filed with, and have been approved by, the CPUC. SoCalGas is also subject to certain regulatory requirements and thresholds related to natural gas procurement under the GCIM. We discuss revenue recognition in Note 3 and additional market-risk information regarding derivative instruments in Note 11 of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
We have exposure to changes in commodity prices, interest rates and foreign currency and inflation rates. The following discussion of these primary market-risk exposures as of December 31, 2022 includes a discussion of how these exposures are managed.
COMMODITY PRICE RISK
Market risk related to physical commodities is created by volatility in the prices and basis of certain commodities. Our various subsidiaries are exposed, in varying degrees, to commodity price risk, primarily to prices in the natural gas and electricity markets. Our policy is to manage this risk within a framework that considers the specific markets and operating and regulatory environments of each subsidiary.
Sempra Infrastructure is exposed to commodity price risk indirectly through its LNG, natural gas pipelines and storage, and power-generating assets. Sempra Infrastructure has utilized and may continue to utilize commodity contracts, including physical and financial derivatives, in an effort to mitigate these risks and optimize the value of these assets. These transactions are typically priced based on market indices, but may also include fixed price purchases and sales of commodities. Any residual exposure is monitored as described above. Some of these derivatives that we use as economic hedges do not meet the requirements for hedge accounting, or hedge accounting is not elected, and as a result, the changes in fair value of these derivatives are recorded in earnings. Consequently, significant changes in commodity prices have in the past and could in the future result in earnings volatility as the economic offset of these derivatives may not be recorded at fair value. A significant decrease in the fair value of these economic hedges could also result in higher collateral requirements, which could negatively impact our liquidity and our ability to continue to mitigate our commodity risk exposure. We try to structure our hedging transactions with the objective that over time (i) realized gains and losses on our economic hedges would be largely offset by gains and losses related to our purchases or sales of natural gas and (ii) we would realize the economic benefit we anticipated at the time we structured the original transaction.
A hypothetical 10% change in commodity prices would have resulted in a change in the fair value of our commodity-based natural gas and electricity derivatives of $24 million and $3 million at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. The impact of a change in energy commodity prices on our commodity-based derivative instruments at a point in time is not necessarily representative of the results that will be realized when the contracts are ultimately settled and does not typically include the generally offsetting impact of our underlying asset positions.
SDG&E and SoCalGas separately manage risk within the parameters of their market risk management frameworks. In addition, their market-risk exposure is limited due to CPUC-authorized rate recovery of the costs of commodity purchases, interstate and intrastate transportation, and storage activity. However, SoCalGas may, at times, be exposed to market risk as a result of the
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GCIM, which rewards or penalizes the utility for commodity costs below or above certain benchmarks. The one-day VaR for SDG&E and SoCalGas’ commodity positions were $25 million and $2 million, respectively, at December 31, 2022 and $5 million and $1 million, respectively, at December 31, 2021.
INTEREST RATE RISK
We are exposed to fluctuations in interest rates primarily from our short- and long-term debt. Subject to regulatory constraints, we periodically enter into interest rate swap agreements to moderate our exposure to interest rate changes and to lower our overall cost of borrowing.
The table below shows the nominal amount of our debt:
| NOMINAL AMOUNT OF DEBT**(1)** | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (Dollars in millions) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| December 31, 2022 | December 31, 2021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sempra | SDG&E | SoCalGas | Sempra | SDG&E | SoCalGas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short-term: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sempra California | $ | 1,105 | $ | 205 | $ | 900 | $ | 1,161 | $ | 776 | $ | 385 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Other | 2,247 | — | — | 2,310 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long-term: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sempra California fixed-rate | $ | 13,159 | $ | 7,400 | $ | 5,759 | $ | 10,876 | $ | 6,417 | $ | 4,459 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Sempra California variable-rate | 700 | 400 | 300 | 300 | — | 300 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other fixed-rate | 10,079 | — | — | 8,591 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other variable-rate | 575 | — | — | 341 | — | — |
(1) After the effects of interest rate swaps. Before reductions for unamortized discount and debt issuance costs and excluding finance lease obligations at December 31, 2022 and 2021, and before the effects of acquisition-related fair value adjustments at December 31, 2021.
An interest rate risk sensitivity analysis measures interest rate risk by calculating the estimated changes in earnings that would result from a hypothetical change in market interest rates. Earnings are affected by changes in interest rates on short-term debt and variable-rate long-term debt. If weighted-average interest rates on short-term debt outstanding at December 31, 2022 increased or decreased by 10%, the change in earnings over the 12-month period ending December 31, 2023 would be approximately $12 million. If interest rates increased or decreased by 10% on all variable-rate long-term debt at December 31, 2022, after considering the effects of interest rate swaps, the change in earnings over the 12-month period ending December 31, 2023 would be approximately $5 million.
We provide further information about debt and interest rate swap transactions in Notes 7 and 11, respectively, of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
We also are subject to the effect of interest rate fluctuations on the assets of our pension plans, PBOP plans, and SDG&E’s NDT. However, we expect the effects of these fluctuations, as they relate to Sempra California, to be reflected in future rates.
FOREIGN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE RISK AND INFLATION EXPOSURES
We discuss our foreign currency exchange rate risk and inflation exposures in “Part II – Item 7. MD&A – Impact of Foreign Currency and Inflation Rates on Results of Operations.”
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The hypothetical effect for every 10% appreciation in the U.S. dollar against the Mexican peso, in which we have operations and investments, are as follows:
| HYPOTHETICAL EFFECTS FROM 10% STRENGTHENING OF U.S. DOLLAR (1) | |||||
| (Dollars in millions) | |||||
| Hypothetical effects | |||||
| Translation of 2022 earnings to U.S. dollars(2) | $ | (3) | |||
| Transactional exposure(3) | 153 | ||||
| Translation of net assets of foreign subsidiaries and investment in foreign entities(4) | (19) |
(1) After the effects of foreign currency derivatives.
(2) Amount represents the impact to earnings for a change in the average exchange rate throughout the reporting period.
(3) Amount primarily represents the effects of currency exchange rate movement from December 31, 2022 on monetary assets and liabilities and remeasurement of non-U.S. deferred income tax balances at our Mexican subsidiaries.
(4) Amount represents the effects of currency exchange rate movement from December 31, 2022 that would be recorded to OCI at the end of the reporting period.
Monetary assets and liabilities at our Mexican subsidiaries and JVs that are denominated in U.S. dollars may fluctuate significantly throughout the year. These monetary assets and liabilities and certain nonmonetary assets and liabilities are adjusted for Mexican inflation for Mexican income tax purposes. Based on a net monetary liability position of $4.8 billion, including those related to our investments in JVs, at December 31, 2022, the hypothetical effect of a 10% increase in the Mexican inflation rate is approximately $104 million lower earnings as a result of higher income tax expense for our consolidated entities, as well as lower equity earnings for our JVs.
In 2022 and 2023 to date, SDG&E and SoCalGas have experienced inflationary pressures from increases in various costs, including the cost of natural gas, electric fuel and purchased power, labor, materials and supplies, as well as availability of labor and materials. Sempra Texas Utilities has experienced increased costs of labor and materials and does not have specific regulatory mechanisms that allow for recovery of higher costs due to inflation; rather, recovery is limited to rate updates through capital trackers and base rate reviews, which may result in partial non-recovery due to the regulatory lag. If such costs were to continue to be subject to significant inflationary pressures and we are not able to fully recover such higher costs in rates or there is a delay in recovery, these increased costs may have a significant effect on Sempra’s, SDG&E’s and SoCalGas’ results of operations, financial condition, cash flows and/or prospects.
Sempra Infrastructure has experienced inflationary pressures from increases in various costs, including the cost of labor, materials and supplies. Sempra Infrastructure generally secures long-term contracts that are U.S. dollar-denominated or referenced and are periodically adjusted for market factors, including inflation, and Sempra Infrastructure generally enters into lump-sum contracts for its large construction projects in which much of the risk during construction is absorbed or hedged by the EPC contractor. If additional costs were to become subject to significant inflationary pressures, we may not be able to fully recover such higher costs through contractual adjustments for inflation, which may have a significant effect on Sempra’s results of operations, financial condition, cash flows and/or prospects.
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