Item 1A. Risk Factors

Our business, financial condition and results are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties. In connection with any investment decision, you should carefully consider the following significant factors, which could materially affect us, including impacting our business, financial condition, results of operations, stock price or credit rating, as well as our reputation. You should read these risk factors in conjunction with “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Item 7 and our Consolidated Financial Statements and related notes in Item 8. These risks are not the only ones we face. We could also be affected by other events, factors or uncertainties that are unknown to us, or that we do not currently consider to be significant risks.

Changes in general economic conditions, in the U.S. and internationally, may adversely affect us.

We conduct operations in over 220 countries and territories. Our operations are subject to cyclicality affecting national and international economies in general, as well as the local economic environments in which we operate. The factors that result in general economic changes are beyond our control, and it may be difficult for us to adjust our business model to mitigate the impact of these factors. In particular, our business is affected by levels of industrial production, consumer spending and retail activity and we could be materially affected by adverse developments in these aspects of the economy. In addition, there remains substantial economic uncertainty arising from the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union. The U.K. and the E.U. continue to negotiate the future relationship between themselves, which could take several years to finalize. The outcome of these negotiations could result in, among other things, transportation delays, fewer goods being transported globally, additional volatility in currency exchange rates and further regulations relating to, among other things, trade, aviation and the transport of goods. Any of the foregoing could materially adversely affect us.

Our industry is rapidly evolving. We expect to continue to face significant competition, which could adversely affect us.

Our industry is rapidly evolving, including demand for faster deliveries and increased visibility into shipments. We expect continued significant competition on a local, regional, national and international basis. Our competitors include the postal services of the U.S. and other nations, various motor carriers, express companies, freight forwarders, air couriers, large transportation and e-commerce companies that are making significant investments in their capabilities, and start ups and other companies that combine technologies with crowdsourcing to focus on local market needs, some of whom may currently be our customers. Competition may also come from other sources in the future, including as new technologies are developed. Competitors have cost and organizational structures that differ from ours and from time to time may offer services or pricing terms that we may not be willing or able to offer. Additionally, to remain competitive, from time to time we may have to raise prices and our customers may not be willing to accept these higher prices. If we are unable to timely and appropriately respond to competitive pressures, we could be adversely affected.

Continued transportation industry consolidation may further increase competition. As a result of consolidation, competitors may increase their market share, improve their financial capacity and strengthen their competitive positions. Business combinations could also result in competitors providing a wider variety of services and products at competitive prices, which could adversely affect us.

Changes in our relationships with any of our significant customers, including the loss or reduction in business from one or more of them, could have a material adverse effect on us.

For the year ended December 31, 2019, one customer, Amazon.com and its affiliates, accounted for 11.6% of our consolidated revenues. Some of our other significant customers can account for a relatively significant portion of our revenues in a particular quarter or year. These customers can impact our revenues based on factors such as: customer product launches; e-commerce or other industry trends, such as the seasonality associated with the fourth quarter holiday season; business combinations and the overall growth of a customer's underlying business; as well as any disruptions to their businesses. These customers could choose to divert all or a portion of their business with us to one of our competitors, demand pricing concessions for our services, require us to provide enhanced services that increase our costs, or develop their own shipping and distribution capabilities. In addition, certain of our significant customer contracts include termination rights of either party upon the occurrence of certain events or without cause upon advance notice to the other party. If all or a portion of our business relationships with one or more significant customers were to terminate or be canceled it could materially adversely affect us.

Our business is subject to complex and stringent laws, regulations and policies which could increase our operating costs.

We are subject to complex and stringent aviation, transportation, environmental, security, labor, employment, safety, privacy and data protection and other governmental laws, regulations and policies, both in the U.S. and in other countries in which we operate. In addition, we are impacted by laws, regulations and policies that affect global trade, including tariff and trade policies, export requirements, taxes, monetary policies and other restrictions and charges. Recently, trade discussions between the U.S. and various of its trading partners have been fluid, and existing and future trade agreements are and are expected to continue to be subject to a number of uncertainties, including the imposition of new tariffs or adjustments and changes to the products covered by existing tariffs. The impact of new laws, regulations and policies or decisions or interpretations by authorities applying those laws and regulations, cannot be predicted. Compliance with any new laws or regulations may increase our operating costs or require significant capital expenditures. Any failure to comply with applicable laws, regulations or policies in the U.S. or in any of the other countries in which we operate could result in substantial fines or possible revocation of our authority to conduct our operations, which could adversely affect us.

Increased security requirements impose substantial costs on us and we could be the target of an attack or have a security breach, which could materially adversely affect us.

As a result of concerns about global terrorism and homeland security, governments around the world have adopted or may adopt stricter security requirements that will result in increased operating costs for businesses in the transportation industry. These requirements may change periodically as a result of regulatory and legislative requirements and in response to evolving threats. We cannot determine the effect that any new requirements will have on our cost structure or our operating results, and new rules or other future security requirements may increase our costs of operations and reduce operating efficiencies. Regardless of our compliance with security requirements or the steps we take to secure our facilities or fleet, we could also be the target of an attack or security breaches could occur, which could materially adversely affect us.

Increasingly stringent regulations related to climate change could materially increase our operating costs.

Regulation of greenhouse gas ("GHG") emissions exposes our transportation and logistics businesses to potentially significant new taxes, fees and other costs. Compliance with such regulation, and any increased or additional regulation, or the associated costs is further complicated by the fact that various countries and regions are following different approaches to the regulation of climate change.

For example, in 2009 the European Commission approved the extension to the airline industry of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (“ETS”) for GHG emissions. Under this decision, all of our flights operating within the European Union are covered by the ETS requirements, and we are required annually to purchase emission allowances in an amount exceeding the number of free allowances allocated to us under the ETS. Similarly, in 2016, the International Civil Aviation Organization (“ICAO”) passed a resolution adopting the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (“CORSIA”), which is a global, market-based emissions offset program to encourage carbon-neutral growth beyond 2020. A pilot phase is scheduled to begin in 2021 in which countries may voluntarily participate, and full mandatory participation is scheduled to begin in 2027. ICAO continues to develop details regarding implementation, but compliance with CORSIA will increase our operating costs.

In the U.S., Congress in the past several years has considered various bills that would regulate GHG emissions, but these bills so far have not received sufficient Congressional support for enactment. Nevertheless, some form of federal climate change legislation is possible in the future. Even in the absence of such legislation, the Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”), spurred by judicial interpretation of the Clean Air Act, could determine to regulate GHG emissions, especially aircraft or diesel engine emissions, and this could impose substantial costs on us.

In November 2019, the U.S. began the process to withdraw from the Paris climate accord, an agreement among 196 countries to reduce GHG emissions. The effect of that withdrawal on future U.S. policy regarding GHG emissions, on CORSIA and on other GHG regulation is uncertain. Nevertheless, the extent to which other countries implement that agreement could have an adverse direct or indirect effect on us.

We may face additional regulations regarding GHG emissions internationally and in the United States. Potential costs to us of increased regulation regarding GHG emissions, especially aircraft or diesel engine emissions, include an increase in the cost of the fuel and other energy we purchase and capital costs associated with updating or replacing our aircraft or vehicles prematurely. We cannot predict the impact any future regulation would have on our cost structure or our operating results. It is possible that such regulation could significantly increase our operating costs and that we may not be willing or able to pass such costs along to our customers. Moreover, even without such regulation, increased awareness and any adverse publicity in the global marketplace about the GHGs emitted by companies in the airline and transportation industries could harm our reputation and reduce customer demand for our services, especially our air services.

Strikes, work stoppages and slowdowns by our employees could adversely affect us.

Many of our U.S. employees are employed under a national master agreement and various supplemental agreements with local unions affiliated with the Teamsters. Our airline pilots, airline mechanics, ground mechanics and certain other employees are employed under other collective bargaining agreements. In addition, some of our international employees are employed under collective bargaining or similar agreements. Strikes, work stoppages or slowdowns by our employees could adversely affect our ability to meet our customers' needs. As a result, customers may reduce their business or stop doing business with us if they believe that such actions or threatened actions may adversely affect our ability to provide services. We may face a permanent loss of customers if we are unable to provide uninterrupted service, and this could materially adversely affect us. The terms of future collective bargaining agreements also may affect our competitive position and results of operations.

We are exposed to the effects of changing fuel and energy prices, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and interruptions in supplies of these commodities.

Changing fuel and energy costs have a significant impact on our operations. We require significant quantities of fuel for our aircraft and delivery vehicles and are exposed to the risks associated with variations in the market price for petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. We mitigate our exposure to changing fuel prices through our indexed fuel surcharges and through hedging transactions from time to time. If we are unable to maintain or increase our fuel surcharges, higher fuel costs could adversely impact our operating results. Even if we are able to offset changes in fuel costs with surcharges, high fuel surcharges may result in a mix shift from our higher-yielding air products to lower-yielding ground products or an overall reduction in volume. There can also be no assurance that hedging transactions will be effective to protect us from changes in fuel prices. Moreover, we could experience a disruption in energy supplies as a result of war, actions by producers or other factors beyond our control, which could have a material adverse effect on us.

Changes in exchange rates or interest rates may have a material adverse effect on us.

We conduct business across the globe with a significant portion of our revenue derived from operations outside the United States. Our operations in international markets are affected by changes in the exchange rates for local currencies, and in particular the Euro, British Pound Sterling, Canadian Dollar, Chinese Renminbi and Hong Kong Dollar.

We are exposed to changes in interest rates, primarily on our short-term debt and that portion of our long-term debt that carries floating interest rates. The impact of a 100-basis-point change in interest rates affecting our debt is discussed in the “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk” section of this report. Additionally, changes in interest rates impact the valuation of our pension and postretirement benefit obligations and the related benefit cost recognized in the income statement. The impact of changes in interest rates on our pension and postretirement benefit obligations and costs is discussed further in the "Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates" section of this report.

We monitor and manage our exposures to changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates, and use derivative instruments to mitigate the impact of changes in these rates on our financial position and results of operations; however, changes in exchange rates and interest rates cannot always be predicted or hedged and may have a material adverse effect on us.

The proposed phase out of the London Interbank Offer Rate ("LIBOR") could have an adverse effect on us.

Certain of our debt and other financial instruments have interest rates tied to LIBOR. The head of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority has announced the desire to phase out the use of LIBOR by the end of 2021. There is currently no definitive information regarding the future utilization of LIBOR or any particular replacement rate. As such, the potential effect of any such event on our cost of capital cannot be determined. In addition, any further changes or reforms to the determination or supervision of LIBOR may result in a sudden or prolonged increase or decrease in reported LIBOR, which could have an adverse impact on extensions of credit held by us and could have a material adverse effect on us.

Failure to maintain our brand image and corporate reputation could adversely impact us.

Our success depends in part on our ability to maintain the image of the UPS brand and our reputation for providing excellent service to our customers. Service quality issues, actual or perceived, even when false or unfounded, could tarnish the image of our brand and may cause customers to use other companies. Also, adverse publicity surrounding labor relations, environmental concerns, security matters, political activities and similar matters, or attempts to connect our company to such issues, either in the United States or other countries in which we operate, could negatively affect our overall reputation and use of our services by customers. Social media accelerates and amplifies the scope of negative publicity, and makes responding to negative claims more difficult. Damage to our reputation and loss of brand equity could reduce demand for our services and thus have a material adverse effect on us, and could require additional resources to rebuild our reputation and restore the value of our brand.

A significant data breach or IT system disruption could materially adversely affect us, including requiring us to increase spending on data and system security.

We rely heavily on information technology networks and systems, including the Internet and a number of internally-developed systems and applications, to manage or support a wide variety of important business processes and activities throughout our operations. For example, we rely on information technology to receive package level information in advance of physical receipt of packages, to track items that move through our delivery systems, to efficiently plan deliveries, to execute billing processes, and to track and report financial and operational data. Our franchised center locations and businesses we have acquired also are reliant on the use of information technology systems to manage their business processes and activities.

In addition, the provision of service to our customers and the operation of our networks and systems involve the collection, storage and transmission of significant amounts of proprietary information and sensitive or confidential data, including personal information of customers, employees and others. To conduct our operations, we regularly move data across national borders, and consequently we are subject to a variety of continuously evolving and developing laws and regulations in the United States and abroad regarding privacy, data protection and data security. The scope of the laws that may be applicable to us is often uncertain and may be conflicting, particularly with respect to foreign laws. For example, the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”), which greatly increases the jurisdictional reach of European Union law and adds a broad array of requirements for handling personal data, including the public disclosure of significant data breaches, became effective in May 2018. Other countries have enacted or are enacting data localization laws that require data to stay within their borders. All of these evolving compliance and operational requirements impose significant costs that are likely to increase over time.

Our information technology systems (as well as those of our franchisees and acquired businesses) are susceptible to damage, disruptions or shutdowns due to programming errors, defects or other vulnerabilities, power outages, hardware failures, computer viruses, cyber-attacks, ransomware attacks, malware attacks, theft, misconduct by employees or other insiders, telecommunications failures, misuse, human errors or other catastrophic events. Hackers, foreign governments, cyber-terrorists and cyber-criminals, acting individually or in coordinated groups, may launch distributed denial of service attacks or other coordinated attacks that may cause service outages, gain inappropriate or block legitimate access to systems or information, or result in other interruptions in our business. In addition, the foregoing breaches in security could expose us, our customers and franchisees, or the individuals affected, to a risk of loss, disclosure or misuse of proprietary information and sensitive or confidential data, including personal information of customers, employees and others. The techniques used to obtain unauthorized access, disable or degrade service or sabotage systems change frequently, may be difficult to detect and often are not recognized until launched against a target. As a result, we may be unable to anticipate these techniques or to implement adequate measures to prevent any of the events described above.

We also depend on and interact with the information technology networks and systems of third-parties for many aspects of our business operations, including our customers, and franchisees and service providers such as cloud service providers and third-party delivery services. These third parties may have access to information we maintain about our company, operations, customers, employees and vendors, or operating systems that are critical to or can significantly impact our business operations. Like us, these third parties are subject to risks imposed by data breaches and IT systems disruptions like those described above, and other events or actions that could damage, disrupt or close down their networks or systems. Security processes, protocols and standards that we have implemented and contractual provisions requiring security measures that we may have sought to impose on such third-parties may not be sufficient or effective at preventing such events. These events could result in unauthorized access to, or disruptions or denials of access to, misuse or disclosure of, information or systems that are important to our business, including proprietary information, sensitive or confidential data, and other information about our operations, customers, employees and suppliers, including personal information.

Any of these events that impact our information technology networks or systems, or those of acquired businesses, franchisees, customers, service providers or other third-parties, could result in disruptions in our operations, the loss of existing or potential customers, damage to our brand and reputation, regulatory scrutiny, and litigation and potential liability for us. Among other consequences, our customers’ confidence in our ability to protect data and systems and to provide services consistent with their expectations could be impacted, further disrupting our operations. Similarly, an actual or alleged failure to comply with applicable U.S. or foreign data protection regulations or other data protection standards may expose us to litigation, fines, sanctions or other penalties.

We have invested and continue to invest in technology security initiatives, information technology risk management and disaster recovery plans. The cost and operational consequences of implementing, maintaining and enhancing further data or system protection measures could increase significantly to overcome increasingly intense, complex and sophisticated global cyber threats. Despite our best efforts, we are not fully insulated from data breaches and system disruptions. Although to date we are unaware of a data breach or system disruption, including a cyber-attack, that has been material to us, we cannot provide any assurances that such events and impacts will not be material in the future, and our efforts to deter, identify, mitigate and/or eliminate future breaches may require significant additional effort and expense and may not be successful.

Severe weather or other natural or manmade disasters could adversely affect us.

Severe weather conditions and other natural or manmade disasters, including storms, floods, fires, earthquakes, epidemics, pandemics, conflicts, unrest, or terrorist attacks, may disrupt our business and result in decreased revenues. Customers may reduce shipments, or our costs to operate our business may increase, either of which could have a material adverse effect on us. Any such event affecting one of our major facilities could result in a significant interruption in or disruption of our business.

We make significant capital investments in our business of which a significant portion is tied to projected volume levels.

We require significant capital investments in our business consisting of aircraft, vehicles, technology, facilities and sorting and other types of equipment. These investments support both our existing business and anticipated growth. Forecasting projected volume involves many factors which are subject to uncertainty, such as general economic trends, changes in governmental regulation and competition. If we do not accurately forecast our future capital investment needs, we could have excess capacity or insufficient capacity, either of which would negatively affect our revenues and profitability. In addition to forecasting our capital investment requirements, we adjust other elements of our operations and cost structure in response to adverse economic conditions; however, these adjustments may not be sufficient to allow us to maintain our operating margins.

Economic, political, social developments and other risks associated with international operations could adversely affect us.

We have significant international operations. As a result, we are continually exposed to changing economic, political and social developments that are beyond our control. Emerging markets are typically more volatile than those in the developed world, and any broad-based downturn in these markets could reduce our revenues and adversely affect our business, financial position and results of operations. We are subject to many laws governing our international operations, including those that prohibit improper payments to government officials and commercial customers, and restrict where we can do business, our shipments to certain countries and the information that we can provide to non-U.S. governments. Our failure to manage and anticipate these and other risks associated with our international operations could materially adversely affect us.

We are subject to changes in markets and our business plans that have resulted, and may in the future result, in substantial write-downs of the carrying value of our assets, thereby reducing our net income.

Our regular review of the carrying value of our assets has resulted, from time to time, in significant impairments, and we may in the future be required to recognize additional impairment charges. Changes in business strategy, government regulations, or economic or market conditions have resulted and may result in further substantial impairments of our intangible, fixed or other assets at any time in the future. In addition, we have been and may be required in the future to recognize increased depreciation and amortization charges if we determine that the useful lives of our fixed assets or intangible assets are shorter than we originally estimated. Such changes have in the past, and may in the future, reduce our net income.

Employee health and retiree health and pension benefit costs represent a significant expense to us; further cost increases could materially and adversely affect us.

Our expenses relating to employee health and retiree health and pension benefits are significant. In recent years, we have experienced significant increases in some of these costs, largely as a result of economic factors beyond our control, including, in particular, ongoing increases in healthcare costs well in excess of the rate of inflation and historically low discount rates that we use to value our benefit plan obligations. Continually increasing healthcare costs, volatility in investment returns and discount rates, as well as changes in laws, regulations and assumptions used to calculate retiree health and pension benefit expenses, may adversely affect our business, financial position, results of operations or require significant contributions to our benefit plans. Our national master agreement with the Teamsters includes provisions that are designed to mitigate certain of these healthcare expenses, but there can be no assurance that our efforts will be successful or that the failure or success of these efforts will not materially adversely affect us.

We participate in a number of trustee-managed multiemployer pension and health and welfare plans for employees covered under collective bargaining agreements. As part of the overall collective bargaining process for wage and benefit levels, we have agreed to contribute certain amounts to the multiemployer benefit plans during the contract period. The multiemployer benefit plans set benefit levels and are responsible for benefit delivery to participants. Future contribution amounts to multiemployer benefit plans will be determined only through collective bargaining, and we have no additional legal or constructive obligation to increase contributions beyond the agreed-upon amounts. However, in future collective bargaining negotiations, we could agree to make significantly higher future contributions to improve the funded status of one or more of these plans. The funded status of these multiemployer plans is impacted by various factors, including investment performance, healthcare inflation, changes in demographics and changes in participant benefit levels. At this time, we are unable to determine the amount of additional future contributions, if any, or whether any material adverse effect on us could result from our participation in these plans.

In addition to our on-going multiemployer pension plan obligations, we may have significant additional exposure with respect to benefits earned in the Central States Pension Fund (the "CSPF"). For additional information on our potential additional liabilities related to the CSPF, see note 5 to the audited, consolidated financial statements.

We may have additional tax liabilities.

We are subject to income taxes in the U.S. and many foreign jurisdictions. Significant judgment is required in determining our worldwide provision for income taxes. In the course of our business, there are many transactions and calculations where the ultimate tax determination is uncertain. For example, compliance with the 2017 United States Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the “Tax Act”) may require the collection of information not regularly produced within our company and the exercise of significant judgment in accounting for its provisions. Many aspects of the Tax Act remain unclear and may not be clarified for some time. In addition, many state jurisdictions continue to issue guidance on the state treatment of certain aspects of the Tax Act. As regulations and guidance evolve with respect to the Tax Act, our results may differ from previous estimates and may materially affect our tax rates and our financial position.

We are regularly under audit by tax authorities in different jurisdictions. Economic and political pressures to increase tax revenue in various jurisdictions may make resolving tax disputes more difficult. Although we believe our tax estimates are reasonable, the final determination of tax audits and any related litigation in the jurisdictions where we are subject to taxation could be materially different from our historical income tax provisions and accruals. In addition, changes in U.S. federal and state or international tax laws applicable to corporate multinationals, other fundamental law changes currently being considered by many countries, and changes in taxing jurisdictions’ administrative interpretations, decisions, policies and positions may materially adversely impact our tax expense and cash flows.

We may be subject to various claims and lawsuits that could result in significant expenditures.

The nature of our business exposes us to the potential for various claims and litigation related to labor and employment, personal injury, property damage, business practices, environmental liability and other matters. Any material litigation or a catastrophic accident or series of accidents could result in significant expenditures and have a material adverse effect on us.

Our inability to effectively integrate acquired operations and realize the anticipated benefits of acquisitions, joint ventures or strategic alliances could adversely affect us.

As part of our business strategy, we may acquire businesses and form joint ventures or strategic alliances. Whether we realize the anticipated benefits from these transactions depends, in part, upon the successful integration between the businesses involved, the performance of the underlying operations, capabilities or technologies and the management of the acquired operations. Accordingly, our financial results could be materially adversely affected by our failure to effectively integrate the acquired operations, unanticipated performance issues or transaction-related charges.

Insurance and claims expenses could have a material adverse effect on us.

We have a combination of both self-insurance and high-deductible insurance programs for the risks arising out of the services we provide and the nature of our global operations, including claims exposure resulting from cargo loss, personal injury, property damage, aircraft and related liabilities, business interruption and workers' compensation. Workers' compensation, automobile and general liabilities are determined using actuarial estimates of the aggregate liability for claims incurred and an estimate of incurred but not reported claims, on an undiscounted basis. Our accruals for insurance reserves reflect certain actuarial assumptions and management judgments, which are subject to a high degree of variability. If the number or severity of claims for which we are retaining risk increases, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected. If we lose our ability to self-insure these risks, our insurance costs could materially increase and we may find it difficult to obtain adequate levels of insurance coverage.