Item 1. Business
101K characters. Original on sec.gov · Markdown
Item 1. Business
concentrations in individual insurers. In light of the IAIS adoption of the Holistic Framework, the FSB decided in December 2022 to discontinue the annual identification of Global Systemically Important Insurers in favor of instead applying the Holistic Framework to inform the FSB’s consideration of systemic risk in insurance.
As part of ComFrame, the IAIS is developing a risk-based global insurance capital standard (ICS) applicable to IAIGs, with the purpose of creating a common language for supervisory discussions of group solvency of IAIGs. The IAIS has adopted ICS Version 2.0 for a five-year monitoring phase, with an initial phase that commenced January 2020. During the initial phase, ICS Version 2.0 is used for confidential reporting to group-wide supervisors and discussion in supervisory colleges, but will not trigger supervisory action. At the conclusion of the five-year monitoring period, the IAIS has agreed to a second phase of implementation, whereby the ICS will be applied as a group-wide prescribed capital requirement, defined as a solvency control level above which the supervisor does not intervene on capital adequacy grounds. However, in recognition that the United States and other interested jurisdictions are developing an alternative approach to a group capital calculation that utilizes an aggregation methodology of available capital and required capital of all insurance group members (Aggregation Method or AM), the IAIS is assessing whether the AM provides comparable outcomes to ICS Version 2.0, including by collecting data from interested jurisdictions. The IAIS aims to be in a position by the end of the monitoring phase to assess whether the AM provides substantially the same outcome as the ICS, in which case it will be considered an outcome-equivalent approach to the ICS.
The standards issued by the FSB and/or the IAIS are not binding on the United States or other jurisdictions around the world unless and until the appropriate local governmental bodies or regulators adopt laws or regulations implementing such standards.
PRIVACY, DATA PROTECTION AND CYBERSECURITY
We are subject to various laws and regulations that require financial institutions and other businesses to protect and safeguard personal and other sensitive information and provide notice of their practices relating to the collection, disclosure and other processing of personal information. We also are subject to U.S. federal and state laws and regulations requiring notification to affected individuals and regulators of a data breach(es). Below we highlight a few key privacy, data protection and cybersecurity laws and regulations.
In October 2017, the NAIC adopted the Insurance Data Security Model Law (NAIC Data Security Model Law), which, among other things, requires insurers, insurance producers and other entities required to be licensed under state insurance laws to develop and maintain a written information security program, conduct risk assessments, and oversee the data security practices of third-party service providers. As of December 31, 2022, more than 20 jurisdictions had adopted the NAIC Data Security Model Law. In addition, on March 1, 2019, the NYDFS’s cybersecurity regulation became fully effective, requiring covered financial institutions, including insurance entities licensed in New York, to, among other things, implement a cybersecurity program designed to protect information systems. New York released proposed amendments to its cybersecurity regulation in 2022, which include additional obligations for large insurers including enhanced and updated governance, risk assessment, and technology requirements, new notification obligations, and clarifying changes regarding enforcement.
The State of California enacted the California Consumer Privacy Act of 2018 (CCPA), which was effective as of January 1, 2020, and imposed significant and often first-of-their-kind privacy obligations on businesses handling data related to California residents. The law has a number of exceptions as a result of amendments; however, it does not apply to personal information collected, processed, sold, or disclosed pursuant to the federal Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA) and implementing regulations or the California Financial Information Privacy Act (FIPA). These amendments reduce the impact of the law on AIG in some, but not all, areas. In addition, exemptions for personal information obtained in the context of certain business-to-business communications or transactions and for personal information pertaining to employees, agents and similar categories of individuals sunset on January 1, 2023. The California Privacy Rights Act (CPRA) passed in November 2020 became effective January 1, 2023 and amends the CCPA to create additional privacy rights and obligations in California. Colorado, Connecticut, Utah and Virginia also enacted comprehensive consumer data privacy laws and many other states have proposed similar laws.
These privacy laws impose requirements on covered businesses that are similar to those imposed by the CCPA with respect to privacy notices, data subject rights and data security standards.
In March 2022, the SEC released several proposed rules enhancing disclosure requirements for registered companies covering cybersecurity risk and management. If enacted, the proposed rules would, among other things, require disclosure by registrants of any material cybersecurity incident on Form 8-K within four business days of determining that the incident the registrant has experienced is material. They would also require periodic disclosures of, among other things, (i) details on the company’s cybersecurity policies and procedures, (ii) cybersecurity governance and oversight policies, including the board of directors’ oversight of cybersecurity risks and (iii) details of any cybersecurity incident that was previously disclosed on Form 8-K, as well as any undisclosed incidents that were non-material, but have become material in the aggregate.
The EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) took effect in May 2018. The GDPR’s scope extends to entities established within the EEA (i.e., EU member states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway) and to certain entities not established in the EEA (in certain instances, if they solicit or target individuals in the EU by offering goods or services to EEA data subjects or monitoring the personal behavior of EEA data subjects (e.g., in an online context)). The GDPR was also onshored in the UK through the European
| AIG | 2022 Form 10-K | 11 |
ITEM 1 | Business
Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, with adjustments as provided in the Data Protection, Privacy and Electronic Communications (Amendments etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019. Sanctions for non-compliance with the GDPR are onerous, with the potential for fines of up to 4 percent of global revenue for the most serious infringements of the GDPR.
We have sought to address the GDPR’s requirements by demonstrating accountability for compliance with the GDPR’s principles relating to processing of personal data, maintaining records of processing and completing mandatory Data Protection Impact Assessments in connection with higher risk data processing activities.
The GDPR imposes requirements on the transfer of personal data outside of the EEA, including via Standard Contractual Clauses supplemented by an assessment and due diligence of the legal and regulatory landscape of the jurisdiction of the data importer, the channels used to transmit personal data and the processors or subprocessors that may process personal data.
The EEA and the UK have also taken steps to regulate the use of data and algorithms used for the purpose of artificial intelligence and automated decision-making. In April 2021, the European Commission published its Proposal for a Regulation on a European approach for Artificial Intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act), which recommends a risk-based approach to restricting, regulating and permitting different AI systems. European countries, and supranational political organizations like the EU and the Council of Europe, are expected to take an active role in regulating AI in ways that may impact the insurance industry in the future. Insurance regulators in the United States have also shown interest in the use of external data, algorithms and artificial intelligence in insurance practices, including underwriting, marketing, and claims practices.
We also are subject to other international laws and regulations that require financial institutions and other businesses to protect personal and other sensitive information and provide notice of their practices relating to the collection, disclosure and other processing of personal information and to obtain consent for specific processing activities. We are also subject to laws and regulations requiring notification to affected individuals and regulators of security breaches and laws and regulations regarding data localization and the cross-border transfer of information.
Climate Change and ESG
In recent years, regulators in the United States and in other major countries in which we operate have increased their scrutiny on financial institutions’ and other companies’ risk oversight, disclosures and practices in connection with climate change and other Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) issues. Throughout 2022, there have been active and significant regulatory developments on these issues in the form of newly proposed, issued or implemented rules, regulations and frameworks regarding climate change and other ESG issues that impose, or will impose once effective, new requirements, including requirements related to climate change-related governance, risk management, disclosures, stress testing and scenario planning. For example, in March 2022, the SEC released proposed rule changes on climate-related disclosure. The proposed rule changes would require registrants, including public issuers such as us, to include certain climate-related disclosures in registration statements and periodic reports. These proposed disclosures include information about climate-related risks that are reasonably likely to have a material impact on the registrant’s business, results of operations, or financial condition, and include a new note to their audited financial statements that provides certain climate-related metrics and impacts on a line-item basis. The required information about climate-related risks also would include disclosure of a registrant’s greenhouse gas emissions (including Scope 3 emissions), information about climate-related targets and goals, and transition plan, if any, and would require extensive attestation requirements. If adopted as proposed, the rule changes are expected to result in additional compliance and reporting costs. It is possible that some ESG rules enacted in international jurisdictions where AIG operates could impact AIG Parent. We continue to actively monitor the regulatory landscape surrounding these issues.
U.S. SECURITIES, INVESTMENT ADVISER, BROKER-DEALER AND INVESTMENT COMPANY REGULATION
Our investment products and services are subject to applicable federal and state securities, investment advisory, fiduciary, including the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, as amended (ERISA), and other laws and regulations. The principal U.S. regulators of these operations include the SEC, FINRA, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board, state securities commissions, state insurance departments and the Department of Labor (DOL).
Our variable life insurance, variable annuity and mutual fund products generally are subject to regulation as “securities” under applicable federal securities laws, except where exempt. Such regulation includes registration of the offerings of these products with the SEC, unless exempt from such registration, and requirements of distribution participants to be registered as broker-dealers, as well as recordkeeping, reporting, and other requirements. This regulation also involves the registration of mutual funds and other investment products offered by our businesses, and the separate accounts through which our variable life insurance and variable annuity products are issued, as investment companies under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (Investment Company Act), except where exempt. The Investment Company Act imposes requirements relating to compliance, corporate governance, disclosure, recordkeeping, registration and other matters. In addition, the offering of these products may involve filing and other requirements under the securities laws of the states and other jurisdictions where offered, including the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. Our separate account investment products are also subject to applicable state insurance regulation.
| 12 | AIG | 2022 Form 10-K |
ITEM 1 | Business
We have several subsidiaries that are registered as broker-dealers under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Exchange Act) and are members of FINRA, and/or are registered as investment advisers under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (Advisers Act). Certain of these broker-dealers and investment advisers are involved in our life and annuity product sales, including participating in their distribution and/or serving as an investment adviser to mutual funds that underlie variable products offered by us. Certain of these broker-dealers and investment advisers are also involved in the management of the investment portfolios of our (re)insurance subsidiaries and other affiliates. In addition to registration requirements, the Exchange Act, the Advisers Act, and the regulations thereunder, impose various compliance, disclosure, qualification, recordkeeping, reporting requirements and subject these subsidiaries and their operations to examination. State securities laws also impose filing and other requirements on broker-dealers, investment advisers and/or their licensed representatives, except where exempt.
Further, our licensed sales professionals appointed with certain of our broker-dealer and/or investment adviser subsidiaries and our other employees, insofar as they sell products that are securities, including wholesale and retail activity, are subject to the Exchange Act and to examination requirements and regulation by the SEC, FINRA and state securities commissioners. Regulation and examination requirements also extend to our subsidiaries that employ or control those individuals.
INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES, INVESTMENT ADVISER, BROKER-DEALER AND INVESTMENT COMPANY REGULATION
We operate investment-related businesses in, among other jurisdictions, the UK and Ireland. These businesses may advise on and market investment management products and services, investment funds and separately managed accounts. The regulatory authorities for these businesses include securities, investment advisory, financial conduct and other regulators that typically oversee such issues as: (1) company licensing; (2) the approval of individuals with positions of responsibility; (3) conduct of business to customers, including sales practices; (4) solvency and capital adequacy; (5) fund product approvals and related disclosures; and (6) securities, commodities and related laws, among other items. We also participate in investment-related joint ventures in jurisdictions outside the United States, primarily in Europe and Asia. In some cases, our international investment operations are also subject to U.S. securities laws and regulations.
ERISA
We provide products and services to certain employee benefit plans that are subject to ERISA and/or the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the Internal Revenue Code). Plans subject to ERISA include certain pension and profit-sharing plans and welfare plans, including health, life and disability plans. As a result, our activities are subject to the restrictions imposed by ERISA and the Internal Revenue Code, including the requirement under ERISA that fiduciaries must perform their duties solely in the interests of ERISA plan participants and beneficiaries, and that fiduciaries may not cause a covered plan to engage in certain prohibited transactions. The applicable provisions of ERISA and the Internal Revenue Code are subject to enforcement by the DOL, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation.
STANDARD OF CARE DEVELOPMENTS
We and our distributors are subject to laws and regulations regarding the standard of care applicable to sales of our products and the provision of advice to our customers. In recent years, many of these laws and regulations have been revised or reexamined while others have been newly adopted, such as:
-
DOL Fiduciary Rule - In June 2020, the DOL issued final guidance on the definition of a “fiduciary” for purposes of transactions with ERISA qualified plans, related plan participants and Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs). The DOL’s final rule confirmed use of a five-part test for determining who is an investment advice fiduciary, and also confirmed related exemptions. In December 2020, the DOL issued the final version of a new prohibited transaction exemption, for parties that qualify as investment advice fiduciaries. The DOL is reviewing issues relating to its regulation of fiduciary investment advice and may take further regulatory actions. We continue to monitor developments with respect to the definition of fiduciary “investment advice” to ERISA plans and IRAs and to prohibited transactions exemptions.
-
SEC Best Interest Regulation - On June 30, 2020, Regulation Best Interest (Regulation BI), which establishes new rules regarding the standard of care a broker must meet when making a recommendation to a retail customer in connection with the sale of a security or other covered recommendation, and Form CRS, which requires enhanced disclosure by broker-dealers and investment advisers regarding client relationships and certain conflicts of interest issues, became effective. Both had been adopted by the SEC in June 2019 as part of a package of final rulemakings and interpretations, at the same time as the SEC issued two interpretations under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The first interpretation addressed the standard of conduct applicable to SEC-registered investment advisers, including details regarding the fiduciary duty owed to clients, required disclosures and the adviser’s continuous monitoring obligations. The second interpretation clarified when investment advice would be considered “solely incidental” to brokerage activity for purposes of the broker-dealer exclusion from SEC investment adviser registration. These two SEC interpretations became effective in July 2019.
| AIG | 2022 Form 10-K | 13 |
ITEM 1 | Business
-
FINRA Standard of Care Development - Effective June 30, 2020, The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) Rule 2111 was amended to provide that FINRA’s suitability requirements do not apply to recommendations that are subject to Regulation BI. This amendment was intended to mitigate any potential confusion regarding which standard of conduct applies to retail consumers. FINRA’s suitability rules still apply to recommendations that are not covered by Regulation BI, such as recommendations to institutional customers.
-
New York Standard of Care Developments – in July 2018, NYDFS adopted a best interest standard of care regulation applicable to annuity and life insurance transactions through issuance of the First Amendment to Insurance Regulation 187 – Suitability and Best Interests in Life Insurance and Annuity Transactions (Regulation 187). As amended, Regulation 187 requires producers to act in their client’s best interest when making point-of-sale and in-force recommendations, and to deliver to the client the written basis for the recommendation, as well as the facts and analysis to support the recommendation. The amended regulation also imposes additional duties on life insurance companies in relation to these transactions, such as requiring insurers to establish and maintain procedures designed to prevent financial exploitation and abuse. The amended Regulation 187 was previously challenged in court, but was upheld by the State of New York Court of Appeals, which is New York’s highest state court, in October 2022.
-
State Standard of Care Developments (Other than New York) – In February 2020, the NAIC adopted revisions to its Suitability in Annuity Transactions Model Regulation (#275) (NAIC Suitability Model) implementing a best interest standard of care applicable to sales and recommendations of annuities. The amended NAIC Suitability Model conforms in large part to Regulation BI, providing that all recommendations by agents and insurers must be in the best interest of the consumer under known circumstances at the time an annuity recommendation is made, without placing agents’ or insurers’ financial interests ahead of the consumer’s interest in making a recommendation. A majority of states have adopted amendments to their suitability rules based on the NAIC Suitability Model revisions, and we expect that a substantial majority of states will do so or consider adopting their own standards of conduct which could be broader than the NAIC Suitability Model.
We continue to closely follow these legislative and regulatory activities as changes in standard of care requirements and have evaluated the impact of these requirements on us and our customers, distribution partners and financial advisers. We have made significant investments to implement and enhance tools, processes and procedures, where needed, to comply with the final rules and interpretations. These efforts and enhancements have resulted in increased compliance costs and may impact sales results and increase regulatory and litigation risk.
FEDERAL RETIREMENT LEGISLATION
In December 2022, Congress enacted comprehensive retirement legislation within the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023. The provisions drew from the House’s proposed Securing a Strong Retirement Act of 2022, the Senate Finance Committee’s proposed Enhancing American Retirement Now (EARN) Act, and the Senate HELP Committee’s proposed Retirement Improvement and Savings Enhancement to Supplement Healthy Investments for the Nest Egg (RISE & SHINE) Act, collectively known as “SECURE 2.0”. The provisions enacted may impact our products and services, including changes to required minimum distribution rules, available investment options in annuity products, and contribution limits.
Available Information about AIG
Our corporate website is www.aig.com. We make available free of charge, through the Investors section of our corporate website, the reports that we file or furnish with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) (including Annual Reports on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, Current Reports on Form 8-K, Proxy Statements on Schedule 14A, any amendments to each of those reports and filings, and other disclosure), corporate governance information (including our Code of Business Conduct and Ethics and any amendments of or waivers from the Code of Business Conduct and Ethics), and select press releases. Additionally, all of our reports filed with the SEC are available on the SEC's website at sec.gov.
Except for the documents specifically incorporated by reference into this Annual Report on Form 10-K, information contained on our website or that can be accessed through our website is not incorporated by reference into this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Reference to our website is made as an inactive textual reference.
| 14 | AIG | 2022 Form 10-K |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
Risk Factor Summary
The following is a summary of the material risks and uncertainties that could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. You should read this summary together with the more detailed description of each risk factor contained below.
Market Conditions
-
Deterioration of economic conditions, geopolitical tensions, changes in market conditions or weakening in global capital markets may materially affect our businesses, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
-
Changes in interest rates have materially and adversely affected and may continue to materially and adversely affect our profitability.
Reserves and Exposures
-
The amount and timing of insurance and reinsurance liability claims are difficult to predict and such claims may exceed the related liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses or future policy benefits, or the liabilities associated with certain guaranteed benefits and indexed features accounted for as embedded derivatives at fair value.
-
Reinsurance may be unavailable or too expensive relative to its benefit, and may not be adequate to protect us against losses.
-
Our consolidated results of operations, liquidity, financial condition and ratings are subject to the effects of natural and man-made catastrophic events.
-
Climate change may adversely affect our business and financial condition.
-
Concentration of our insurance, reinsurance and other risk exposures may have adverse effects.
-
Fortitude Re may fail to perform its obligations and the accounting treatment of our reinsurance agreements with Fortitude Re leads to volatility in our results of operations.
-
We may be required to accelerate the amortization of DAC and record additional liabilities for future policy benefits.
-
Losses due to nonperformance or defaults by counterparties may materially and adversely affect the value of our investments, our profitability and sources of liquidity.
Investment Portfolio and Concentration of Investments
-
Our investment portfolio is concentrated in certain segments of the economy, and the performance and value of our investment portfolio are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.
-
We rely on investment management and advisory arrangements with third-party investment managers for the majority of our investment portfolio. The historical performance of Blackstone, BlackRock or any other investment manager we engage should not be considered as indicative of the future results of our investment portfolio, our future results or any returns expected on AIG Common Stock.
-
Our valuation of investments and derivatives involves the application of methodologies and assumptions to derive estimates, which may differ from actual experience and could result in changes to investment valuations that may materially adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity or lead to volatility in our net income.
Liquidity, Capital and Credit
-
AIG Parent’s ability to access funds from our subsidiaries is limited, and our sources of liquidity may be insufficient to meet our needs, including providing capital that may be required by our subsidiaries.
-
We may not be able to generate cash to meet our needs due to the illiquidity of some of our investments.
-
A downgrade by one or more of the rating agencies in the Insurer Financial Strength ratings of our insurance or reinsurance companies could limit their ability to write or prevent them from writing new business and impair their retention of customers and in-force business, and a downgrade in our credit ratings could adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
-
Changes in the method for determining LIBOR and the continuing phase out of LIBOR and uncertainty related to LIBOR replacement rates may affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
| AIG | 2022 Form 10-K | 15 |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
Business and Operations
-
No assurances can be given that the separation of our Life and Retirement business will be completed or as to the specific terms or timing thereof. In addition, we may not achieve the expected benefits of the separation and will have continuing equity market exposure to Corebridge until we fully divest our stake.
-
Pricing for our products is subject to our ability to adequately assess risks and estimate related losses.
-
Guarantees within certain of our Life and Retirement products may increase the volatility of our results.
-
Our risk management policies and procedures may prove to be ineffective and leave us exposed to unidentified or unanticipated risk, which could adversely affect our businesses, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
-
Our foreign operations expose us to risks that may affect our operations.
-
We are exposed to certain risks if we are unable to maintain the availability of our critical technology systems and data and safeguard the confidentiality and integrity of our data, which could compromise our ability to conduct business and adversely affect our consolidated business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
-
Third parties we rely upon to provide certain business and administrative services on our behalf may not perform as anticipated, which could have an adverse effect on our business and results of operations.
-
We may experience difficulty in marketing and distributing products through our current and future distribution channels and the use of third parties may result in additional liabilities.
-
Failure to effectively execute on AIG 200 could have a material effect on our operations or financial condition.
-
Business or asset acquisitions and dispositions may expose us to certain risks.
-
Significant legal or regulatory proceedings may adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition.
-
Increasing scrutiny and evolving expectations from investors, customers, regulators, policymakers and other stakeholders regarding environmental, social and governance (ESG) matters may adversely affect our reputation or otherwise adversely impact our business and results of operations.
-
COVID-19 has adversely affected and may continue to adversely affect our global business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity, and its ultimate impact will depend on future developments that are uncertain and cannot be predicted.
-
We may not be able to protect our intellectual property and may be subject to infringement claims.
Employees and Competition
-
Employee error and misconduct may be difficult to detect and prevent and may result in reputational damage and significant losses.
-
Competition for employees in our industry is intense, and managing key employee succession is critical to our success. We may not be able to retain and attract key employees and other highly skilled employees we need to support our businesses.
-
We face intense competition in each of our business lines, and technological changes may present new and intensified challenges to our businesses.
Regulation
-
Our businesses are heavily regulated and changes in laws and regulations may affect our operations, increase our insurance subsidiary capital requirements or reduce our profitability.
-
New laws and regulations or new interpretations of current laws and regulations, both domestically and internationally, may affect our businesses, results of operations, financial condition and ability to compete effectively.
-
An “ownership change” could limit our ability to utilize tax loss and credit carryforwards to offset future taxable income.
-
New and proposed changes to tax laws could increase our corporate taxes or make some of our products less attractive to consumers.
Estimates and Assumptions
-
Estimates or assumptions used in the preparation of financial statements and modeled results used in various areas of our business may differ materially from actual experience.
-
Changes in accounting principles and financial reporting requirements will impact our consolidated results of operations and financial condition.
-
If our businesses do not perform well and/or their estimated fair values decline, we may be required to recognize an impairment of our goodwill or establish an additional valuation allowance against the deferred income tax assets, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.
| 16 | AIG | 2022 Form 10-K |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
Risk Factors
Investing in AIG involves risk. In deciding whether to invest in AIG, you should carefully consider the following risk factors. Any of these risk factors could have a significant or material adverse effect on our businesses, results of operations, financial condition or liquidity. They could also cause significant fluctuations and volatility in the trading price of our securities. Readers should not consider any descriptions of these factors to be a complete set of all potential risks that could affect AIG. These factors should be considered carefully together with the other information contained in this report and the other reports and materials filed by us with the SEC. Further, many of these risks are interrelated and could occur under similar business and economic conditions, and the occurrence of certain of them may in turn cause the emergence or exacerbate the effect of others. Such a combination could materially increase the severity of the impact of these risks on our businesses, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity above and beyond a risk’s singular impact.
MARKET CONDITIONS
Deterioration of economic conditions, geopolitical tensions, changes in market conditions or weakening in global capital markets may materially affect our businesses, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
Our businesses are highly dependent on global economic and market conditions. Weaknesses in economic conditions, including a recessionary environment, poor capital markets performance and market volatility have in the past led, and may in the future lead to, among other consequences, a poor operating environment, erosion of consumer and investor confidence, reduced business volumes, deteriorating liquidity, declines in asset valuations and impacts on policyholder behavior that could influence reserve valuations. Further, if our investment managers, including Blackstone and BlackRock, or any other asset managers we engage, fail to react appropriately to difficult market or economic conditions, our investment portfolio could incur material losses.
Key ways in which have in the past been, and could in the future be, negatively affected by economic conditions include:
-
increases in policy withdrawals, lapses, surrenders and cancellations and other impacts from changes in policyholder behavior compared to that assumed in pricing;
-
increased loss payments and loss costs due to inflation;
-
write-offs of deferred policy acquisition costs;
-
increases in liability for future policy benefits due to loss recognition on certain long-duration insurance and reinsurance contracts;
-
increases in costs associated with third-party reinsurance, or decreased ability to obtain reinsurance on acceptable terms; and
-
the increased likelihood of, or increased magnitude of, asset impairments caused by market fluctuations deterioration in collateral values or credit deterioration of borrowers.
Adverse economic conditions may result from a variety of factors including domestic and global economic and political developments, including rising interest rates, plateauing or decreasing economic growth and business activity, recessions, inflationary or deflationary pressures in developed economies, including the United States, civil unrest, pandemics, including disruptions caused by COVID-19, geopolitical tensions, foreign investment restrictions, or military action, such as the armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia and corresponding sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries, and new or evolving legal and regulatory requirements on business investment, hiring, migration, labor supply and global supply chains.
These and other market, economic, regulatory and political factors, including the impact of any new or prolonged government financial stimulus package or the expiration or suspension thereof, have and could have a material adverse effect on our businesses, results of operations, financial condition, capital and liquidity in many ways, including:
-
lower levels of consumer demand for and ability to afford our products and commercial business activities that have decreased and may continue to decrease revenues and profitability and thus impair goodwill, deferred tax assets or other long-term assets;
-
increased credit impairments, downgrades and losses across single or numerous asset classes due to lower collateral values or deteriorating cash flow and profitability by borrowers that could lead to higher defaults on the Company’s investment portfolio, especially in geographic, industry or investment sectors where the Company has higher concentrations of exposure, such as real estate related borrowings and widening of credit spreads that could reduce investment asset valuations, decrease fee income and increase statutory capital requirements;
-
increased market volatility and uncertainty that could decrease liquidity, increase borrowing costs and limit access to capital markets;
-
the reduction of investment income generated by our investment portfolio;
| AIG | 2022 Form 10-K | 17 |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
-
disruption to our business operations in countries experiencing geopolitical tensions as well as increased costs associated with meeting customer needs in such regions;
-
increased costs related to our direct and third-party support services, labor and financing, increased credit risk and decreased sales as a result of inflationary pressures; and
-
limitations on business activities and increased compliance risks with respect to economic sanctions regulations relating to jurisdictions in which our businesses operate or we have operations.
Changes in interest rates have materially and adversely affected and may continue to materially and adversely affect our profitability. Global interest rates have been increasing, including in the United States, and in some cases, have risen rapidly after an extended period at or near historic lows.
We are exposed primarily to the following risks arising from or exacerbated by fluctuations in interest rates:
-
mismatch between the expected duration of our liabilities and our assets;
-
impairment to our ability to earn the returns or spreads assumed in the pricing and the reserving for our products;
-
changes in certain statutory reserve or capital requirements that are based on formulas or models that consider interest rates or prescribed interest rates, such as cash flow testing reserves;
-
changes in the costs of derivatives we use for hedging or increases in the volume of hedging we do as interest rates change;
-
loss related to an increase in policy loans, surrenders and withdrawals following a rise in interest rates;
-
loss from reduced fee income, increased guaranteed benefit costs and accelerated deferred policy acquisition costs (DAC) amortization arising from fluctuations in the variable product separate account values associated with fixed income investment options due to increased interest rates or credit spread widening;
-
the reinvestment risk associated with more prepayments on mortgage-backed securities and other fixed income securities in decreasing interest rate environments and fewer prepayments in increasing interest rate environments;
-
volatility in our GAAP results of operations driven by interest rate-related components of liabilities and equity market-related components of optional guaranteed benefits and the cost of associated hedges in low interest rate environments; and
-
increased financing and refinancing costs, in particular with respect to our corporate debt instruments.
Changes in interest rates have had and could continue to have a material adverse effect on the value of our investment portfolio, for example, by decreasing the estimated fair values of the fixed income securities that constitute a substantial portion of our investment portfolio. This in turn has increased and could continue to increase the unrealized loss positions in our portfolio and adversely affect our ability to realize our deferred tax assets, thereby materially and adversely affecting our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. Furthermore, changes in interest rates and credit spreads have led to decreasing the average account value of our separate accounts thereby negatively impacting the fee income we earn.
In periods of rapidly increasing interest rates, such as the current interest rate environment, we may not be able to purchase, in a timely manner, the investments in our general account with yields sufficient to fund the higher crediting rates necessary to keep interest rate sensitive products that we offer competitive. Therefore, we may need to accept a lower investment spread and, thus, lower profitability, or face a decline in sales and greater loss of existing contracts and related assets. Policy loans, surrenders and withdrawals also tend to increase as policyholders seek investments with higher perceived returns as interest rates rise. These impacts may continue to result in significant cash outflows requiring that we sell investments at a time when the prices of those investments are adversely affected by the increase in interest rates, which could result in realized investment losses when selling assets in an unrealized loss position. Further, the increase in interest rates has and could continue to have a material adverse effect on the value of our investment portfolio, for example, by decreasing the fair values of the fixed income and alternative investment securities that constitute a substantial portion of our investment portfolio as well as the alternative investments in our investment portfolio. This in turn could adversely affect our ability to realize our deferred tax assets.
Conversely, sustained low interest rates as we have experienced in recent years have negatively affected and could in the future negatively affect the performance of our investments and reduce the level of investment income earned on our investment portfolios, resulting in net investment spread compression. We experience lower investment income as well as lower sales of new Life and Retirement insurance products, including interest rate sensitive products, and policies when a low or declining U.S. interest rate environment persists, and/or interest rates turn negative, and these effects can persist so long as the investments purchased and products issued remain outstanding, even after rates have risen. We may also experience lower investment income if we are forced to reinvest cash flows from investments at rates below the average yield of our existing portfolios. Due to practical and capital markets limitations, we have in the past not been and may in the future not be able to fully mitigate our interest rate risk by matching exposure of our assets relative to our liabilities. Low levels of interest rates have in the past and could in the future continue to impair our ability to earn the returns assumed in the pricing and the reserving for our products at the time they were sold and issued.
| 18 | AIG | 2022 Form 10-K |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
In addition, fluctuations in interest rates may expose us to the risk of increases in certain statutory reserve requirements that are based on formulas or models that consider interest rates, which would reduce statutory capital, and increases in capital requirements and the amount of assets we must maintain to support statutory reserves, which would reduce surplus.
The primary source of our exposure to credit spreads is in the value of our fixed income securities. If credit spreads widen significantly, we could be exposed to higher levels of defaults and impairments. If credit spreads tighten significantly, it could result in reduced net investment income and, in turn, reduced profitability associated with new purchases of fixed maturity securities. Tightening credit spreads would reduce the discount rates used in the principles-based statutory reserve calculation, potentially increasing statutory reserve requirements and, in turn, reducing statutory surplus. Although these effects on bond fund valuation and reserve discount rates run in offsetting directions for either credit spread widening or narrowing, it is possible for one of them to outweigh the other under certain market conditions. Any of these risks could cause an adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
RESERVES AND EXPOSURES
The amount and timing of insurance and reinsurance liability claims are difficult to predict and such claims may exceed the related liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses or future policy benefits, or the liabilities associated with certain guaranteed benefits and indexed features accounted for as embedded derivatives at fair value.
We regularly review the adequacy of the established liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses and future policy benefits, as well as liabilities associated with certain guaranteed benefits and indexed features accounted for as embedded derivatives at fair value. We also conduct extensive analyses of our reserves and embedded derivatives during the year. Our liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, future policy benefits and embedded derivatives, however, has and may develop adversely and materially impact our businesses, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
For General Insurance, estimation of ultimate net losses, loss expenses and the liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses is a complex process, particularly for both long-tail and medium-tail liability lines of business. There is also greater uncertainty in establishing reserves with respect to new business, particularly new business involving recently introduced product lines. In these cases, there is less historical experience or knowledge and less data upon which the actuaries can rely. Estimating reserves is further complicated by unexpected claims or unintended coverages that emerge due to unexpected events, such as pandemics or geopolitical conflicts. These emerging issues may increase the size or number of claims beyond our underwriting intent and may not become apparent for many years after a policy is issued.
While we use a number of analytical reserve development techniques to project future loss development, the liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses has been and may continue to be significantly affected by changes in loss cost trends or loss development factors that were relied upon in setting the liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses. These changes in loss cost trends or loss development factors could be due to changes in actual versus expected claims and losses, difficulties in predicting changes, such as changes in inflation, unemployment, or other social or economic factors affecting claims, including judicial and legislative actions, and changes in the tort environment. Any deviation in loss cost trends or in loss development factors might not be identified for an extended period of time after we record the initial loss reserve estimates for any accident year or number of years.
For Life and Retirement, establishment and ongoing calculations of future policy benefits and related reinsurance assets is a complex process, with significant judgmental inputs, assumptions and modeling techniques. The inputs and assumptions used in connection with calculations of reserves for future policy benefits are inherently uncertain. Experience may develop adversely such that additional reserves must be established or the value of embedded derivatives may increase. Adverse experience could arise out of a number of factors, including, but not limited to, severe short-term events, such as a pandemic or changes to policyholder behavior during stressed economic periods, or due to misestimation of long-term assumptions such as mortality, interest rates, credit spreads, equity market levels and volatility and persistency assumptions. Certain variables, such as policyholder behavior, are difficult to estimate and can have a significant impact on reserves and embedded derivatives. Life and Retirement reviews and updates actuarial assumptions at least annually, typically in the third quarter for reserves and embedded derivatives. Additionally, Life and Retirement regularly carries out loss recognition testing for generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) reporting and cash flow testing for statutory reporting.
For additional information on reserve development, see Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Insurance Reserves.
For additional information on our loss reserves, see Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Critical Accounting Estimates – Loss Reserves and Note 12 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
For additional information regarding these products, see Notes 12 and 13 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, Item 1. Business – Regulation, and Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Critical Accounting Estimates – Guaranteed Benefit Features of Variable Annuity, Fixed Annuity and Fixed Index Annuity Products.
| AIG | 2022 Form 10-K | 19 |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
Reinsurance may be unavailable or too expensive relative to its benefit, and may not be adequate to protect us against losses. Our subsidiaries are major purchasers of third-party reinsurance and we use reinsurance as part of our overall risk management strategy. Our reinsurance business also purchases retrocessional reinsurance, which allows a reinsurer to cede to another company all or part of the reinsurance obligations originally assumed by the reinsurer. While reinsurance does not discharge our subsidiaries from their obligation to pay claims for losses insured or reinsured under our policies, it does make the reinsurer liable to the subsidiaries for the reinsured portion of the risk. Market conditions beyond our control may impact the availability and cost of reinsurance or retrocessional reinsurance and could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. For example, reinsurance is typically more difficult or costly to obtain after a year or consecutive years with a large number of major catastrophes. We have been and may, at certain times be, (i) forced to incur additional costs for reinsurance, (ii) unable to obtain sufficient reinsurance on acceptable terms, or (iii) unable to obtain reinsurance for certain parts of our business. In instances where reinsurance is insufficient or unavailable, we would have to accept an increase in exposure to risk, reduce or stop writing certain lines of business written by our subsidiaries or seek alternatives in line with our risk limits, or a combination thereof.
Additionally, we are exposed to credit risk with respect to our subsidiaries’ reinsurers to the extent the reinsurance receivable is not secured, or is inadequately secured, by collateral or does not benefit from other credit enhancements. We also bear the risk that a reinsurer is, or may be, unwilling to pay amounts we have recorded as reinsurance recoverables for any reason, including that (i) the terms of the reinsurance contract do not reflect the intent of the parties to the contract or there is a disagreement between the parties as to their intent, or (ii) the terms of the contract cannot be legally enforced. We also bear the risk that (i) the terms of the contract are interpreted by a court or arbitration panel differently than expected, (ii) the reinsurance transaction performs differently than we anticipated compared to the original structure, terms or conditions, or (iii) a change in laws and regulations, or in the interpretation of the laws and regulations, materially impacts a reinsurance transaction. The insolvency of one or more of our reinsurers, the inability or unwillingness of such reinsurers to make timely payments under the terms of our contracts or payments in an amount equal to our reinsurance recoverable, or the risk that the reinsurance transaction does not operate as intended, including due to a change in laws and regulations or on account of court or arbitration panel interpretations, could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and liquidity.
Additionally, the use of reinsurance placed in the capital markets may not provide the same levels of protection as traditional reinsurance transactions. Any disruption, volatility and uncertainty in these markets, such as following a major catastrophic event, may limit our ability to access such markets on terms favorable to us or at all. Also, to the extent that we intend to use structures based on an industry loss index or other non-indemnity trigger rather than on actual losses incurred by us, we could be subject to residual risk.
Our Life and Retirement companies also utilize intercompany reinsurance arrangements to provide capital benefits to their affiliated cedants. They have and may continue to pursue reinsurance transactions and permitted practices to manage the capital impact of statutory reserve requirements under applicable reserving rules, including PBR. The application of actuarial guidelines and PBR involves numerous interpretations. If state insurance departments do not agree with our interpretations or if regulations change with respect to our ability to manage the capital impact of certain statutory reserve requirements, the statutory reserve requirements of our Life and Retirement companies could increase, or the ability of our Life and Retirement companies to take reserve credit for reinsurance transactions could be reduced or eliminated. Additionally, if the ratings of our Life and Retirement companies decline, we could incur higher costs to obtain reinsurance, each of which could adversely affect sales of our products and our financial condition or results of operations.
The availability of private sector reinsurance for terrorism is limited and we currently have limited reinsurance coverage for terrorist attacks. While we benefit from the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA), which provides U.S. government risk assistance to the insurance industry to manage the exposure to terrorism incidents, TRIPRA has specific program limits and does not cover losses in certain lines of business such as personal property and personal casualty. We also rely on the government sponsored and government arranged terrorism reinsurance programs, including pools, in force in applicable non-U.S. jurisdictions.
For additional information on our reinsurance recoverable, see Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Enterprise Risk Management – Insurance Risks – Reinsurance Activities – Reinsurance Recoverable.
Our consolidated results of operations, liquidity, financial condition and ratings are subject to the effects of natural and man-made catastrophic events.
Events such as hurricanes, windstorms, hailstorms, flooding, earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, solar storms, earth sinking, tsunamis, war or other military action, acts of terrorism, explosions and fires, cyberattacks, product defects, pandemics and other highly contagious diseases, mass torts, civil unrest and other catastrophes have adversely affected our business in the past and could do so in the future.
| 20 | AIG | 2022 Form 10-K |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
Catastrophic events, and any relevant regulations, could result in losses in any business in which we operate, and could expose us to:
-
widespread claim costs associated with property, workers’ compensation, accident and health, travel, business interruption, cyber and mortality and morbidity claims;
-
loss resulting from a decline in the value of our invested assets;
-
limitations on our ability to recover deferred tax assets;
-
loss resulting from actual policy experience that is adverse compared to the assumptions made in product pricing;
-
revenue loss due to decline in customer base;
-
declines in value and/or losses with respect to companies and other entities whose securities we hold and counterparties we transact business with and have credit exposure to, including reinsurers; and
-
significant disruptions to our physical infrastructure, systems and operations.
Natural and man-made catastrophic events are generally unpredictable. Our exposure to catastrophe-related loss depends on various factors, including the frequency and severity of the catastrophes, the availability of reinsurance, the rate of inflation and the value and geographic or other concentrations of insured companies and individuals. Vendor models and proprietary assumptions and processes that we use to manage catastrophe exposure may prove to be ineffective due to incorrect assumptions or estimates. For example, modeling for terrorism, cyber events and pandemics is more difficult and may be less reliable.
In addition, legislative and regulatory initiatives and court decisions following major catastrophes (both natural and man-made) have required and could require us to pay the insured beyond the provisions of the original insurance policy and may prohibit the application of a deductible, resulting in inflated and unanticipated claims; or impose other restrictions after the occurrence of a major catastrophe, which would reduce our ability to mitigate exposure. These initiatives could impair our cash flows and, without regulatory relief, could reduce our subsidiaries’ capital ratios.
For additional information on potential catastrophic events, including a sensitivity analysis of our exposure to certain catastrophes, see Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Enterprise Risk Management – Insurance Risks.
For information regarding the effects of climate change on our business, see Reserves and Exposures – “Climate change may adversely affect our business and financial condition” below.
For information regarding the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, see Business and Operations – “COVID-19 has affected and may continue to adversely affect our global business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity, and its ultimate impact will depend on future developments that are uncertain and cannot be predicted” below.
Climate change may adversely affect our business and financial condition.
Climate change, indicated by higher concentrations of greenhouse gases, a warming atmosphere and ocean, wildfires, diminished snow and ice, and a rise in sea levels, appears to have contributed to an increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters and the creation of uncertainty as to future trends and exposures. As such, climate change presents significant financial implications for AIG in areas such as underwriting, claims and investments, as well as risk capacity, financial reserving and operations.
Climate change presents challenges to our ability to effectively underwrite, model and price catastrophe risk particularly if the frequency and severity of catastrophic events such as pandemics, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, wildfires and windstorms and other natural disasters continue to increase. For example, losses resulting from actual policy experience may be adverse as compared to the assumptions made in product pricing as well as mortality assumptions and our ability to mitigate our exposure may be reduced.
Climate change-related risks may also adversely impact the value of the securities that we hold or lead to credit risk of other counterparties we transact business with, including reinsurers. Our reputation or corporate brand could also be negatively impacted as a result of changing customer or societal perceptions of organizations that we either insure or invest in due to their actions (or lack thereof) with respect to climate change. Any policies adopted by investors to address changing societal perceptions on climate change could result in increased compliance costs to our businesses and changes to our corporate governance and risk management practices, and may affect the type of assets we hold in our investment portfolio.
In addition, lawmakers and regulators have imposed and may continue to impose new requirements or issue new guidance aimed at addressing or mitigating climate change-related risks and efforts undertaken in response thereto. Additional actions by foreign governments, regulators and international standard setters could result in substantial additional regulation to which we may be subject. It is also possible that the laws and regulations adopted in U.S. state, U.S. federal or foreign jurisdictions regarding climate change-related risks will differ from one another, and that they could be inconsistent with the laws and regulations of other jurisdictions in which we operate.
| AIG | 2022 Form 10-K | 21 |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
Additionally, litigation related to climate change has increased in recent years. Many lawsuits center on enforcement or interpretation of environmental laws and regulations, often seeking to use litigation as a tool to influence governmental and corporate climate policies. Other cases seek damages for contribution to climate change or for insufficient disclosure around material financial risks. Increased litigation of this nature could trigger losses under liability policies, such as casualty and directors’ and officers’ insurance policies, increase our liabilities and affect the viability of certain of our business lines.
In addition, severe weather and other effects of climate change result in more frequent and more severe damages, leading to lawsuits. Wildfires in the western U.S., resulting in significant litigation liability for utility companies, are an example of this. Indirect climate change effects are also seen in litigation over flooding, mudslides and other severe weather that results in injury or damage, as well as in construction defect litigation, chemical release lawsuits, and workers’ compensation claims. Litigation related to climate change may, through increased claims from our customers and adverse impacts to the value of the securities that we hold, adversely impact our business and results of operations.
We have also faced and may continue to face business continuity risk as a result of climate change-related incidents that may disrupt business operations, including extreme weather events. We cannot predict the long-term impacts of climate change on our business and results of operations.
For information regarding risks associated with other catastrophic events, see Reserves and Exposures – “Our consolidated results of operations, liquidity, financial condition and ratings are subject to the effects of natural and man-made catastrophic events” above.
Concentration of our insurance, reinsurance and other risk exposures may have adverse effects.
We are exposed to risks as a result of concentrations in our insurance and reinsurance policies, investments, derivatives and other obligations that we undertake for customers and counterparties. We manage these risks related to concentration by monitoring the accumulation of our exposures to factors such as exposure type and size, industry, geographic region, counterparty and other factors. We also seek to use third-party reinsurance, hedging and other arrangements to limit or offset exposures that exceed our retention and risk appetite limits. In certain circumstances, however, these risk management arrangements may not be available on acceptable terms or may prove to be ineffective. Our risk exposures under insurance and reinsurance policies, derivatives and other obligations are, from time to time, compounded by risk exposure assumed in our investment business. Also, our exposure for certain single risk coverages and other coverages may be so large that adverse experience compared to our expectations may have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations or result in additional statutory capital requirements for our subsidiaries.
In addition, the separation of our Life and Retirement business, if completed, could increase the materiality of these potential concentrations in the remaining portfolio. For additional information on risks associated with the separation of the Life and Retirement business from AIG, see Business Operations – “No assurances can be given that the separation of our Life and Retirement business will be completed or as to the specific terms or timing thereof. In addition, we may not achieve the expected benefits of the separation and will have continuing equity market exposure to Corebridge until we fully divest our stake” below.
Also see Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Business Segment Operations – General Insurance – Business Strategy and – Outlook – Industry and Economic Factors, and Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Business Segment Operations – Life and Retirement – Business Strategy and – Outlook – Industry and Economic Factors.
Fortitude Re may fail to perform its obligations and the accounting treatment of our reinsurance agreements with Fortitude Re leads to volatility in our results of operations.
As of December 31, 2022, approximately $29.0 billion of reserves from AIG’s Life and Retirement Run-Off Lines and approximately $3.2 billion of reserves from AIG’s General Insurance Run-Off Lines, related to business written by multiple wholly-owned AIG subsidiaries, had been ceded to Fortitude Re under reinsurance transactions. These reserve balances are fully collateralized pursuant to the terms of the reinsurance transactions. Our subsidiaries continue to remain primarily liable to policyholders under the business reinsured with Fortitude Re. As a result, if Fortitude Re is unable to successfully operate, or other issues arise that affect its financial condition or ability to satisfy or perform its obligations to our subsidiaries, we could experience a material adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition and liquidity to the extent the amount of collateral posted in respect of our reinsurance receivable is inadequate. Further, as is customary in similar reinsurance agreements, upon the occurrence of certain termination and recapture triggers, our subsidiaries may elect or may be required to recapture the business ceded under such reinsurance agreements, which would result in a substantial increase to our insurance liabilities and statutory capital requirements and may require us to raise capital to recapture such ceded business. These termination and recapture triggers include Fortitude Re becoming insolvent or being placed into liquidation, rehabilitation, conservatorship, supervision, receivership, bankruptcy or similar proceedings, certain regulatory ratios falling below certain thresholds, and, in the case of those reinsurance agreements made with Life and Retirement, Fortitude Re’s failure to perform under the reinsurance agreements, or its entry into certain transactions without receiving the consent of Corebridge.
As the reinsurance transactions between AIG and Fortitude Re are structured as modified coinsurance (modco) for the Life and Retirement Run-Off Lines and loss portfolio transfer arrangements with funds withheld for the General Insurance Run-Off Lines, the manner in which we account for these reinsurance arrangements has led, and will continue to lead, to volatility in our results of operations. In modco and funds withheld arrangements, the investments supporting the reinsurance agreements, and which reflect
| 22 | AIG | 2022 Form 10-K |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
the majority of the consideration that would be paid to the reinsurer for entering into the transaction, are withheld by, and therefore continue to reside on the balance sheet of, the ceding company (i.e., AIG and its subsidiaries) thereby creating an obligation for the ceding company to pay the reinsurer (i.e., Fortitude Re) at a later date. Additionally, as our applicable insurance subsidiaries maintain ownership of these investments, AIG will maintain its existing accounting for these assets (e.g., the changes in fair value of available for sale securities will be recognized within other comprehensive income). AIG has established a funds withheld payable to Fortitude Re while simultaneously establishing a reinsurance asset representing reserves for the insurance coverage that Fortitude Re has assumed. The funds withheld payable contains an embedded derivative and changes in fair value of the embedded derivative related to the funds withheld payable are recognized in earnings through realized gains (losses). This embedded derivative is considered a total return swap with contractual returns that are attributable to various assets and liabilities associated with these reinsurance agreements. As a result of changes in the fair value of the embedded derivative, we experience volatility in our GAAP net income.
For additional information on our exposure to credit risk of reinsurers, see Reserves and Exposures – “Reinsurance may be unavailable or too expensive relative to its benefit, and may not be adequate to protect us against losses” above.
We may be required to accelerate the amortization of DAC and record additional liabilities for future policy benefits.
We incur significant costs in connection with acquiring new and renewal insurance business. DAC represents deferred costs that are incremental and directly related to the successful acquisition of new business or renewal of existing business. The recovery of these costs is generally dependent upon the future profitability of the related business, but DAC amortization varies based on the type of contract. For long-duration traditional business, DAC is generally amortized in proportion to premium revenue and varies with lapse experience. Actual lapses in excess of expectations have and may result in an acceleration of DAC amortization, and therefore, adversely impact our results of operations.
DAC for investment-oriented products is generally amortized in proportion to actual and estimated gross profits. Estimated gross profits are affected by a number of factors, including levels of current and expected interest rates, net investment income (which is net of investment expenses) and credit spreads, net realized gains and losses, fees, surrender rates, mortality experience, policyholder behavior experience and equity market returns and volatility. If actual and/or future estimated gross profits are less than originally expected, then the amortization of these costs would be accelerated in the period this is determined and would result in a lower-than-expected profitability, potentially impacting our ability to achieve our financial goals. Additionally, this would also result in a decrease in expected future profitability and an acceleration of the amortization of DAC, and therefore lower than expected pre-tax income earned during the then current period.
We also periodically review products for potential loss recognition events, principally long-duration products. This review involves estimating the future profitability of in-force business and requires significant management judgment about assumptions including, but not limited to, mortality, morbidity, persistency, maintenance expenses and investment returns, including net realized gains (losses). If actual experience or revised future expectations result in projected future losses, we may be required to amortize any remaining DAC and record additional liabilities through a charge to policyholder benefit expense in the then current period, which could negatively affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
For additional information on DAC and future policy benefits, see Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Critical Accounting Estimates and Notes 12 and 13 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
For additional information on changes to accounting standards for long-duration insurance contracts, see Estimates and Assumptions – “Changes in accounting principles and financial reporting requirements will impact our consolidated results of operations and financial condition.”
Losses due to nonperformance or defaults by counterparties may materially and adversely affect the value of our investments, our profitability and sources of liquidity.
We are exposed to credit risk arising from exposures to various counterparties related to investments, derivatives, premiums receivable, certain General Insurance businesses and reinsurance recoverables. These counterparties include, but are not limited to, issuers of fixed income and equity securities we hold, borrowers of loans we hold, customers, plan sponsors, trading counterparties, counterparties under swaps and other derivatives instruments, reinsurers, corporate and governmental entities whose payments or performance we insure, joint venture partners, clearing agents, exchanges, clearing houses, custodians, brokers and dealers, commercial banks, investment banks, intra-group counterparties with respect to derivatives and other third parties, financial intermediaries and institutions and guarantors. These counterparties may default on their obligations to us due to bankruptcy, insolvency, receivership, financial distress, lack of liquidity, adverse economic conditions, operational failure, fraud, government intervention and other reasons. In addition, for exchange-traded derivatives, such as futures, options as well as "cleared" over-the-counter derivatives, we are generally exposed to the credit risk of the relevant central counterparty clearing house and futures commission merchants through which we clear derivatives. Defaults by these counterparties on their obligations to us could have a material adverse effect on the value of our investments, business, financial condition, results of operations and liquidity.
| AIG | 2022 Form 10-K | 23 |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
An insolvency of, or the appointment of a receiver to rehabilitate or liquidate, a significant competitor could negatively impact our business if such appointment were to impact consumer confidence in our products and services. Additionally, if the underlying assets supporting the structured securities we invest in are expected to default or actually default on their payment obligations, our securities may incur losses.
In addition, our exposure to credit risk may be exacerbated in periods of market or credit stress, as derivative counterparties take a more conservative view of their acceptable credit exposure to us, resulting in reduced capacity to execute derivative-based hedges.
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO AND CONCENTRATION OF INVESTMENTS
Our investment portfolio is concentrated in certain segments of the economy, and the performance and value of our investment portfolio are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.
Our results of operations and financial condition have in the past been, and may in the future be, adversely affected by the degree of concentration in our consolidated investment portfolio. For example, we have holdings of real estate and real estate-related investments, including residential mortgage- backed, commercial mortgage-backed and other asset-backed securities and residential and commercial mortgage loans. We also have significant exposures to financial institutions and, in particular, to money center banks and global banks, certain industries, such as energy and utilities, the U.S. federal, state and local government issuers and authorities, and global financial institutions, governments and corporations. Events or developments that have a negative effect on any particular industry, asset class, group of related industries or geographic region may adversely affect the valuation of our investments to the extent they are concentrated in such segments. Our ability to sell assets in such segments may be limited.
Our investments are also subject to market risks and uncertainties, including, in addition to interest rate risk, changes in the level of credit spreads, currency rates, and commodity and equity prices, each of which has affected and will continue to affect the value of investments in our investment portfolio as well as the performance of, and returns generated by, such investments. For information regarding risks associated with interest rate volatility, see Market Conditions – “Changes in interest rates have materially and adversely affected and may continue to materially and adversely affect our profitability” above.
Furthermore, our alternative investment portfolio, which is subject to volatility in equity markets, includes investments for which changes in fair value are reported through pre-tax income. An economic downturn or decline in the capital markets has had and could continue to have a material adverse effect on our investment income, including as a result of decreases in the fair value of alternative investments.
We rely on investment management and advisory arrangements with third-party investment managers for the majority of our investment portfolio. The historical performance of Blackstone, BlackRock or any other investment manager we engage should not be considered as indicative of the future results of our investment portfolio, our future results or any returns expected on AIG Common Stock. In 2021, AIG entered into a long-term investment management relationship with Blackstone, pursuant to which Blackstone is initially managing $50 billion of Corebridge’s existing investment portfolio, with that amount increasing to an aggregate of $92.5 billion over the next five years. In addition, beginning in April 2022, certain AIG and Corebridge insurance company subsidiaries have entered into investment management agreements with BlackRock, pursuant to which BlackRock is managing over $150 billion of our investments in liquid fixed income and certain private placement assets, including over $90 billion of the Corebridge investment portfolio.
As part of the arrangements with Blackstone, Blackstone is serving as exclusive external investment manager for certain of Corebridge's insurance company subsidiaries for certain asset classes, which has led to an increase in investment management fees payable by us as compared to expenses we have historically incurred for similar services. Under the arrangements with Blackstone, there are provisions that require minimum management fees to be paid to Blackstone to the extent actual amounts charged to the Corebridge insurance company subsidiaries are below such minimums. Also, the exclusivity provisions and termination provisions that are part of these arrangements with Blackstone may prevent our Corebridge subsidiaries from retaining other external investment managers with respect to the subject asset classes who may produce better returns on investments than Blackstone. In addition, pursuant to the relevant agreements with Blackstone, if such agreements are terminated for reasons other than certain specified reasons, Corebridge could be required to continue paying investment advisory fees to Blackstone regardless of the termination. Corebridge may not have the funds available to pay any such fees and its insurance company subsidiaries may not be able or permitted to pay dividends or make other distributions to Corebridge in an amount sufficient to pay any such fees or at all. Any requirement to pay such fees could adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
If Blackstone or BlackRock are unable to effectively manage our portfolio, the concentration of assets in our portfolio that are managed by Blackstone and BlackRock could adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
In addition, Blackstone and BlackRock are generally compensated based solely on our assets which they manage, rather than by investment return targets, and as a result, Blackstone and BlackRock are not directly incentivized to maximize investment return targets. Our investment portfolio’s returns have benefited historically from investment opportunities and general market conditions that may not currently exist and may not be repeated. There can be no guarantee that Blackstone, BlackRock or any other investment
| 24 | AIG | 2022 Form 10-K |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
manager we engage will be able to achieve any particular returns or generate investment opportunities with attractive, risk-adjusted returns for our investment portfolio in the future.
Our valuation of investments and derivatives involves the application of methodologies and assumptions to derive estimates, which may differ from actual experience and could result in changes to investment valuations that may materially adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity or lead to volatility in our net income.
During periods of market disruption, it has been and may continue to be difficult to value certain of our investments or derivatives if trading becomes less frequent and/or market data becomes less observable. There may be cases where certain assets in normally active markets with significant observable data become inactive with insufficient observable data due to the financial environment or market conditions in effect at that time. As a result, valuations may include inputs and assumptions that are less observable or require greater estimation and judgment as well as valuation methods that are more complex. These values may not be realized in a market transaction, may not reflect the value of the asset and may change very rapidly as market conditions change and valuation assumptions are modified. Decreases in value and/or an inability to realize that value in a market transaction or other disposition may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
For information regarding volatility in accounting as it relates to Fortitude Re, see Reserves and Exposures – “Fortitude Re may fail to perform its obligations and the accounting treatment of our reinsurance agreements with Fortitude Re leads to volatility in our results of operations” above.
LIQUIDITY, CAPITAL AND CREDIT
AIG Parent’s ability to access funds from our subsidiaries is limited, and our sources of liquidity may be insufficient to meet our needs, including providing capital that may be required by our subsidiaries. As a holding company, AIG Parent depends on dividends and other payments from its subsidiaries to fund operations, pay dividends, meet debt service obligations and meet the capital and liquidity needs of our subsidiaries. The majority of our investments are held by our regulated subsidiaries. Any inability by our subsidiaries to make dividend or other payments in an amount sufficient to enable AIG Parent to meet its cash requirements could have an adverse effect on our operations or our business, results of operations, financial condition, capital and liquidity.
The ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends to us in the future will depend on their earnings, capital levels, tax considerations, covenants contained in any financing or other agreements, applicable regulatory restrictions and rating agency requirements. In addition, such payments could be limited as a result of claims against our subsidiaries by their creditors, including suppliers, vendors, lessors and employees. Additionally, our insurance subsidiaries may be limited in their ability to make dividend payments to AIG Parent in the future because of the need to meet their obligations or to support their own capital levels or because of regulatory limits and restrictions or changes in, or interpretations of, regulatory or rating agency standards.
Our decision to pursue strategic changes or transactions in our business and operations may also subject our subsidiaries’ dividend plans to heightened regulatory scrutiny and could make obtaining regulatory approvals for extraordinary distributions by our subsidiaries, if required, more difficult. We are also subject to certain other restrictions on our capital from time to time.
If our liquidity is insufficient to meet our needs, we may need to have recourse to third-party financing, external capital markets or other sources of liquidity, which may not be available or could be expensive. The availability and cost of any additional financing at any given time depends on a variety of factors, including general market conditions, the volume of trading activities, the overall availability of credit, regulatory actions and our credit ratings and credit capacity. It is also possible that, as a result of such recourse to external financing, customers, lenders or investors could develop a negative perception of our long- or short-term financial prospects. If AIG Parent is unable to satisfy a capital need of a subsidiary, the credit rating agencies could downgrade the subsidiary’s financial strength ratings or the subsidiary could become insolvent or, in certain cases, could be seized by its regulator.
In the ordinary course of our business, we are required to post collateral for our insurance company subsidiaries from time to time. If our reinsurance liabilities increase, we may be required to post additional collateral for insurance company clients that we reinsure. In addition, we may be required to post additional collateral due to regulatory changes from time to time, which could adversely impact our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.
For additional information on our liquidity, see Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Liquidity and Capital Resources.
For additional information on rating agency requirements, see Liquidity, Capital and Credit – “A downgrade by one or more of the rating agencies in the Insurer Financial Strength ratings of our insurance or reinsurance companies could limit their ability to write or prevent them from writing new business and impair their retention of customers and in-force business, and a downgrade in our credit ratings could adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity” below.
| AIG | 2022 Form 10-K | 25 |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
We may not be able to generate cash to meet our needs due to the illiquidity of some of our investments.
We and our subsidiaries have a diversified investment portfolio. However, economic conditions as well as adverse capital market conditions, including a lack of buyers, the inability of potential buyers to obtain financing on reasonable terms, volatility, credit spread changes, interest rate changes, foreign currency exchange rates and/or declines in collateral values have in the past impacted, and may in the future impact, the liquidity and value of our investments.
We have investments in certain securities, including certain fixed income structured and privately placed securities as well as investments in private equity funds and hedge funds, mortgage loans, finance receivables and real estate that are less liquid than other types of securities. Collectively, investments in these assets had a carrying value of $66 billion at December 31, 2022. If it became necessary to sell such assets in a stressed market environment, the prices achieved in any sale of such securities may be lower than their carrying value, which could cause a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. Adverse changes in the valuation of real estate and real estate-linked assets, deterioration of capital markets and widening credit spreads have in the past, and may in the future, materially adversely affect the liquidity and the value of our investment portfolios, including our residential and commercial mortgage related securities portfolios.
In the event additional liquidity is required by one or more of our companies, it may be difficult for us to generate additional liquidity by selling, pledging or otherwise monetizing these or other of our investments at reasonable prices and time frames.
A downgrade by one or more of the rating agencies in the Insurer Financial Strength ratings of our insurance or reinsurance companies could limit their ability to write or prevent them from writing new business and impair their retention of customers and in-force business, and a downgrade in our credit ratings could adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
Downgrades of the Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) ratings of our insurance or reinsurance companies could (i) prevent these companies from selling, or make it more difficult for them to succeed in selling, products and services, (ii) make it more difficult for them to obtain new reinsurance or obtain it on reasonable pricing terms, and/or (iii) result in increased policy cancellations, lapses and surrenders, termination of, or increased collateral posting obligations under, assumed reinsurance contracts, or return of premiums.
A downgrade in AIG Parent’s credit ratings could result in a downgrade of the IFS ratings of our insurance or reinsurance subsidiaries. Similarly, under credit rating agency policies, a downgrade of the IFS ratings of our insurance and reinsurance subsidiaries could also result in a downgrade in AIG Parent’s credit ratings.
In addition, a downgrade of our long-term debt ratings could potentially increase our financing costs and limit the availability of financing. A downgrade would also require us to post additional collateral payments related to derivative transactions to which we are a party, and could cause counterparties to limit or reduce their exposure to us and thus reduce our ability to manage our market risk exposures effectively.
These events could adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
For additional information on rating agency actions, see Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Liquidity and Capital Resources – Credit Ratings and – Financial Strength Ratings.
Changes in the method for determining LIBOR and the continuing phase out of LIBOR and uncertainty related to LIBOR replacement rates may affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
We have assets, liabilities and obligations with interest rates tied to the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for U.S. dollars and other certain remaining currencies. Starting January 1, 2022, all LIBOR settings either ceased to be provided by any administrator, or are no longer representative for all non-U.S. dollar LIBOR settings and one-week and two-month U.S. dollar (USD) LIBOR settings, and we expect the same will occur immediately after June 30, 2023 for the remaining USD LIBOR settings, absent subsequent action by the relevant authorities.
Significant recommendations as to alternative rates and as to protocols have been advanced by various regulators and market participants, including the Alternative Reference Rates Committee of the United States Federal Reserve (ARRC), the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), and the UK FCA, and legislative action by the U.S. Congress and the State of New York, but there can be no assurance that the various recommendations or legislative action will be effective at preventing or mitigating disruption as a result of the transition. In particular, for U.S. dollar LIBOR, the ARRC has selected the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) as its preferred replacement benchmark and has formally recommended, in limited cases, a term rate based on SOFR; both ARRC and ISDA have taken significant steps toward implementing various fallback provisions and protocols; and for British pound sterling, relevant authorities have promoted use of Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) as a replacement for LIBOR. However, the market transition away from LIBOR to alternative reference rates, including SOFR or SONIA, is complex and could result in disruptions, among other things, due to differences between LIBOR (an unsecured forward-looking term rate) and alternative rates that are based on historical measures of overnight secured rates; due to failure of market participants to fully accept such alternative rates; or due to difficulties in amending legacy LIBOR contracts or implementing processes for determining new alternative rates.
| 26 | AIG | 2022 Form 10-K |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
The consequences of LIBOR reform could adversely affect the market for LIBOR-based securities, the payment obligations under our existing LIBOR-based liabilities and our ability to issue funding agreements bearing a floating rate of interest, as well as the value of financial and insurance products tied to LIBOR, investment portfolio or the substantial amount of derivatives contracts we use to hedge our assets, insurance and other liabilities.
We cannot be certain that measures taken to address the transition from LIBOR will effectively mitigate potential risks related to such transition. In addition, we anticipate there may be additional risks to our current processes and information systems that will need to be identified and evaluated by us. Uncertainty as to the nature of such potential changes, alternative reference rates or other reforms could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
BUSINESS AND OPERATIONS
No assurances can be given that the separation of our Life and Retirement business will be completed or as to the specific terms or timing thereof. In addition, we may not achieve the expected benefits of the separation and will have continuing equity market exposure to Corebridge until we fully divest our stake. In September of 2022, AIG closed on the initial public offering of 12.4 percent of Corebridge’s common stock. While we currently intend to sell down our ownership interest in Corebridge over time following expiration of our lock-up, there can be no guarantee as to the timing or pricing thereof.
Similar to other business dispositions, the separation of our Life and Retirement business involves a number of risks, including (i) unanticipated developments that may delay, prevent or otherwise adversely affect our ability to effect a separation; (ii) significant costs and disruption or distraction of management from AIG’s other business operations, whether or not a separation is completed; (iii) rating agency actions; (iv) unforeseen losses, liabilities or asset impairments arising from the disposition; and (v) if we are successful in separating the business, increased concentration of our business operations.
In addition, the separation of our Life and Retirement business, or a significant delay in our ability to continue to separate the business, has and could continue to cause the emergence or exacerbate the effects of many of the other risks noted herein, including: (i) the risk of indemnity claims that could be made against us in connection with divested businesses; (ii) our ability to utilize certain tax loss and credit carryforwards to offset future taxable income going forward; (iii) competition for employees and managing retention of key employees; (iv) maintaining relationships with certain key distributors; (v) concentration of our insurance and other risk exposures; and (vi) increased exposure to certain risks related to deriving revenue from non-U.S. sources.
We believe that the separation of our Life and Retirement business allows us and Corebridge to pursue distinct strategies appropriate to our respective markets. However, there can be no assurance that we will realize any or all of the expected strategic, financial, operational or other benefits of the separation. Our businesses and results of operations may be negatively impacted if we are unable to realize the anticipated expense reductions and organizational improvements of the separation and any related restructuring activities, or if implementing these initiatives harms our relationships with customers or employees or our competitive position. A failure to realize expected benefits of the separation could result in a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. Additionally, we continue to have a significant equity ownership position in Corebridge, and changes in the market price of Corebridge common stock may have a material impact on us.
Pricing for our products is subject to our ability to adequately assess risks and estimate related losses. Our business is dependent on our ability to price our products effectively and charge appropriate premiums, policy fees and other charges. Pricing adequacy depends on a number of factors and assumptions, including proper evaluation of insurance risks, our expense levels, expected net investment income to be realized, our response to rate actions taken by competitors, legal and regulatory developments, the ability to obtain regulatory approval for rate changes and inflation. Management establishes target returns for each product based upon the factors described above, certain underwriting assumptions and capital requirements, including statutory, GAAP and economic capital models. We monitor and manage pricing and sales to achieve target returns on new business, but we may not be able to achieve those returns due to the factors discussed above. Inadequate pricing and the difference between estimated results of the above factors compared to actual results could have a material adverse effect on the profitability of our operations and our financial condition.
Guarantees within certain of our Life and Retirement products may increase the volatility of our results. Certain of our annuity and life insurance products include features that guarantee a certain level of benefits, including guaranteed minimum death benefits, guaranteed living benefits, including guaranteed minimum income benefits, and products with guaranteed interest crediting rates, including crediting rate guarantees tied to the performance of various market indices. Many of these features are accounted for at fair value as embedded derivatives under GAAP, and they have significant exposure to capital markets and insurance risks. An increase in valuation of liabilities associated with the guaranteed features results in a decrease in our profitability and depending on the magnitude of any such increase, could materially and adversely affect our financial condition, including our capitalization, as well as our financial strength ratings.
| AIG | 2022 Form 10-K | 27 |
Previous: Cover and table of contents · Next: Item 1A. Risk Factors