Item 1A. Risk Factors
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Item 1A. Risk Factors
We employ a capital markets hedging strategy to partially offset the economic impacts of movements in equity, interest rate and credit markets, however, our hedging strategy may not effectively offset movements in our GAAP equity or our and statutory surplus and capital requirements and may otherwise be insufficient in relation to our obligations. Furthermore, we are subject to the risk that changes in policyholder behavior or actual levels of mortality/longevity as compared to assumptions in pricing and reserving, combined with adverse market events, could produce losses not addressed by the risk management techniques employed. These factors, individually or collectively, may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations or liquidity including our ability to receive dividends from our operating companies.
Changes in interest rates result in changes to the fair value liability. All else being equal, higher interest rates generally decrease the fair value of our liabilities, which increases our earnings, while low interest rates generally increase the fair value of our liabilities, which decreases our earnings. A prolonged low interest rate environment or a prolonged period of widening credit spreads may also subject us to increased hedging costs or an increase in the amount of statutory reserves that our insurance subsidiaries are required to hold for our liabilities, lowering their statutory surplus, which would adversely affect their ability to pay dividends. In addition, it may also increase the perceived value of our benefits to our policyholders, which in turn may lead to a higher than expected benefit utilization and persistency of those products over time.
Differences between the change in fair value of the GAAP embedded derivatives, as well as associated statutory and tax liabilities, and the value of the related hedging portfolio may occur and can be caused by movements in the level of equity, interest rate and credit markets, market volatility, policyholder behavior and mortality/longevity rates that differ from our assumptions and our inability to purchase hedging instruments at prices consistent with the desired risk and return trade-off. In addition, we may sometimes choose not to hedge or fully mitigate these risks, based on economic considerations and other factors. The occurrence of one or more of these events has in the past resulted in, and could in the future result in, an increase in the fair value of liabilities associated with the guaranteed benefits without an offsetting increase in the value of our hedges, or a decline in the value of our hedges without an offsetting decline in our liabilities, thus reducing our results of operations and shareholders’ equity.
For additional information on these products, see Notes 12 and 13 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, Item 1. Business – Regulation and Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Critical Accounting Estimates – Guaranteed Benefit Features of Variable Annuity, Fixed Annuity and Fixed Index Annuity Products.
Our risk management policies and procedures may prove to be ineffective and leave us exposed to unidentified or unanticipated risk, which could adversely affect our businesses, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. We have developed and continue to enhance enterprise-wide risk management policies and procedures to identify, monitor and mitigate risk and loss to which we are exposed. Our risk management policies and procedures may not be sufficiently comprehensive and may not identify or adequately protect us from every risk to which we are exposed. Many of our methods of identifying, measuring, underwriting and managing risks are based upon our study and use of historical market, applicant, customer, employee and bad actor behavior or statistics based on historical models. As a result, these methods may not accurately predict future exposures from events such as a major financial market disruption as the result of a natural or man-made disaster (for example, a climate-related event or terrorist attack), that could be significantly different than the historical measures indicate, and which could also result in a substantial change in policyholder behavior and claims levels not previously observed. We have and will continue to enhance our underwriting processes, including, from time to time, considering and integrating newly available sources of data to confirm and refine our traditional underwriting methods. Our efforts at implementing these improvements may not, however, be fully successful, which may adversely affect our competitive position. We have also introduced new product features designed to limit our risk and taken actions on in-force business, which may not be fully successful in limiting or eliminating risk. We may take additional actions on our in-force business, including adjusting crediting rates and cost of insurance, which may not be fully successful in maintaining profitability and which may result in litigation. Moreover, our hedging programs and reinsurance strategies that are designed to manage market risk and mortality risk rely on assumptions regarding our assets, liabilities, general market factors and the creditworthiness of our counterparties that could prove to be incorrect or inadequate. Our hedging programs utilize various derivative instruments, including but not limited to equity options, futures contracts, interest rate swaps and swaptions, as well as other hedging instruments, which may not effectively or completely reduce our risk; and assumptions underlying models used to measure accumulations and support reinsurance purchases may prove inaccurate and could leave us exposed to larger than expected catastrophe losses in a given year. In addition, our current business continuity and disaster recovery plans may not be sufficient to reduce the impact of pandemics, cyber risks, including ransomware, and other natural or man-made catastrophic events that are beyond our anticipated thresholds or impact tolerances. Other risk management methods depend upon the evaluation of information regarding markets, clients, or other matters that is publicly available or otherwise accessible to us, which may not always be accurate, complete, up-to-date or properly evaluated. Management of operational, legal and regulatory risks requires, among other things, policies and procedures to record and verify large numbers of transactions and events in each jurisdiction in which we operate. Jurisdictions have unique requirements with respect to artificial intelligence and environmental, social and governance matters, which may impact the efficacy of our standardized risk management tools and techniques and therefore our policies and procedures may not be fully effective. Accordingly, our risk management policies and procedures may not adequately mitigate the risks to our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
| 28 | AIG | 2022 Form 10-K |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
If our risk management policies and procedures are ineffective, we may suffer unexpected losses and could be materially adversely affected. As our businesses change and the markets in which we operate evolve and new risks emerge, including for example risks related to climate change or meeting regulatory and stakeholder expectations relating to ESG or cybersecurity issues, our risk management framework may not evolve at the same pace as those changes. As a result, there is a risk that new products or new business strategies may present risks that are not appropriately identified, monitored or managed. The effectiveness of our risk management strategies may be limited, resulting in losses, because of market stress, unanticipated financial market movements or unanticipated claims experience from adverse mortality, morbidity or policyholder behavior. In addition, there can be no assurance that we can effectively review and monitor all risks or that all of our employees will understand and follow (or comply with) our risk management policies and procedures.
Our foreign operations expose us to risks that may affect our operations. We provide insurance, reinsurance, investment and other financial products and services to both businesses and individuals in approximately 70 countries and jurisdictions. A substantial portion of our business is conducted outside the United States, and we intend to continue to grow our business in strategic markets. Operations outside the United States have in the past been, and may in the future be, affected by regional economic downturns, changes in foreign currency exchange rates, political events or upheaval, sanctions policies, nationalization and other restrictive government or regulatory actions, which could also affect our other operations.
AIG subsidiaries operating in foreign jurisdictions must satisfy local regulatory requirements and it is possible that local licenses may require AIG Parent to meet certain conditions. Licenses issued by foreign authorities to our subsidiaries are subject to modification and revocation. Consequently, our insurance subsidiaries could be prevented from conducting future business in some of the jurisdictions where they currently operate. Adverse actions from any single country could adversely affect our results of operations, depending on the magnitude of the event and our financial exposure at that time in that country.
AIG is subject to myriad regulations which govern items such as sanctions, bribery and anti-money laundering, for which failure to comply could expose us to significant penalties. The USA Patriot Act of 2011 requires companies to know certain information about their clients and to monitor their transactions for suspicious activities. The Foreign Corrupt Practices Act makes it unlawful for certain classes of persons and entities to make payments to foreign government officials to assist in obtaining or retaining business. Also, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control administers regulations that restrict or prohibit dealings within U.S. jurisdictions involving certain organizations, individuals, countries, and financial products. The UK, the EU and other jurisdictions maintain similar laws and regulations. Although we have policies and controls in place that are designed to ensure compliance with these laws, if those controls are ineffective and/or an employee or third party fails to comply with applicable laws and regulations, we could suffer civil and criminal penalties, including disgorgement, and our business and our reputation could be adversely affected.
We are exposed to certain risks if we are unable to maintain the availability of our critical technology systems and data and safeguard the confidentiality and integrity of our data, which could compromise our ability to conduct business and adversely affect our consolidated business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. We use information technology systems, infrastructure and networks and other operational systems to store, retrieve, evaluate and use customer, employee, and company data and information. Our business is highly dependent on our ability to access these systems and networks to perform necessary business functions. In the event of a natural disaster, a computer virus, unauthorized access, a terrorist attack, cyber attack or other disruption, our systems and networks may be inaccessible to our employees, customers or business partners for an extended period of time, and we may be unable to meet our business obligations and regulatory requirements for an extended period of time if our data or systems are disabled, manipulated, destroyed or otherwise compromised. Additionally, some of our systems and networks are older, legacy-type systems that are less efficient and require an ongoing commitment of significant resources to maintain or upgrade. Supply chain disruptions or delays could prevent us from maintaining and implementing changes, updates and upgrades to our systems and networks in a timely manner or at all. System and network failures or outages could compromise our ability to perform business functions in a timely manner, which could harm our ability to conduct business, hurt our relationships with our business partners and customers and expose us to legal claims as well as regulatory investigations and sanctions, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
Some of these systems and networks also rely upon third-party systems and services, which themselves may rely on the systems and services of other third parties. Problems caused by, or occurring in relation to, our third-party providers’ systems and services, including those resulting from breakdowns or other disruptions in information technology services provided by our third-party providers and the other third-parties on which they rely, our inability to acquire third-party services on commercially acceptable terms, failure of a third-party provider to perform as anticipated or in compliance with applicable laws or regulations, inability of a third-party provider to provide the required volumes of services or third-party providers experiences cyberattacks, security breaches or data breaches, could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
| AIG | 2022 Form 10-K | 29 |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
Like other global companies, the systems and networks we maintain and third-party systems and networks we use have in the past been, and may in the future be, subject to or targets of unauthorized or fraudulent access, including physical or electronic break- ins or unauthorized tampering, as well as attempted cyber and other security threats and other computer-related penetrations such as “denial of service” attacks, phishing, untargeted but sophisticated and automated attacks, and other disruptive software, including ransomware. The frequency and sophistication of such threats continue to increase and often become further heightened in connection with geopolitical tensions. Also, like other global companies, we have an increasing challenge of retaining and attracting highly qualified personnel to assist us in combatting these security threats.
We continuously monitor and develop our information security and technology operations in an effort to prevent, detect, address and mitigate the risk of threats to our data, systems and networks, including malware and computer virus attacks, ransomware, unauthorized access, business e-mail compromise, misuse, denial-of-service attacks, system failures and disruptions, both independently and through contracts with third parties. There is no assurance that our security measures, including information security and technology policies and standards, administrative, technical and physical controls and other actions designed as preventative, will provide fully effective protection from such events. AIG maintains insurance to cover operational risks, such as cyber risk and technology outages, but this insurance may not cover all costs associated with the consequences of information systems or personal, confidential or proprietary information being compromised. In the case of a successful ransomware attack in which our data and information systems are compromised and applicable restore control processes to restore access are not effective, our information could be held hostage until a ransom, which may be significant, is paid. In some cases, such a compromise may not be immediately detected which may make it difficult to restore critical services, mitigate damage to assets and maintain the integrity and security of data including our policyholder, employee, agent, and other confidential information processed through our systems and networks.
Additionally, since we rely heavily on information technology and systems and on the integrity and timeliness of data to run our businesses and service our customers, any such security event and resulting compromise of systems or data may impede or interrupt our business operations and our ability to service our customers, and otherwise may materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
We are continuously evaluating and enhancing our information security and technology systems and processes, including third-party systems and services on which we rely. These continued enhancements and changes, as well as changes designed to update and enhance our protective measures to address new threats, may not decrease the risk of a system or process failure or may create a gap in the associated security measures during the change period. Any such system or process failure or security measures gap could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
We routinely transmit, receive and store personal, confidential and proprietary information by email and other electronic means. Although we attempt to keep such information confidential and secure, we may be unable to do so in all events, especially with clients, vendors, service providers, counterparties and other third parties who may not have or use appropriate controls to protect personal, confidential or proprietary information. Failure to secure or appropriately handle personal, confidential or proprietary information could cause a loss of data or compromised data integrity, give rise to remediation or other expenses, expose us to liability under U.S. and international laws and regulations, and subject us to litigation, investigations, sanctions, and regulatory and law enforcement action, and result in reputational harm and loss of business, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
Furthermore, certain of our businesses are subject to compliance with laws and regulations enacted by U.S. federal and state governments, the EU or other jurisdictions or enacted by various regulatory organizations or exchanges relating to the privacy and security of the information of clients, employees or others. The variety of applicable privacy and information security laws and regulations exposes us to heightened regulatory scrutiny, requires us to incur significant technical, legal and other expenses in an effort to ensure and maintain compliance and will continue to impact our business in the future by increasing legal, operational and compliance costs. While we have taken steps to comply with privacy and information security laws, we cannot guarantee that our efforts will meet the evolving standards imposed by data protection authorities. If we are found not to be in compliance with these privacy and security laws and regulations, we may be subject to additional potential private consumer, business partner or securities litigation, regulatory inquiries, and governmental investigations and proceedings, and we may incur damage to our reputation. Any such developments may subject us to material fines and other monetary penalties and damages, divert management’s time and attention, and lead to enhanced regulatory oversight, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. Additionally, we expect that developments in privacy and cybersecurity worldwide will increase the financial and reputational implications following a significant breach of our or our third-party suppliers’ information technology systems. For additional information on data protection and cybersecurity regulations, see Item 1. Business – Regulation – Privacy, Data Protection and Cybersecurity, and Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Enterprise Risk Management – Operational Risk Management – Cybersecurity Risk.
| 30 | AIG | 2022 Form 10-K |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
Third parties we rely upon to provide certain business and administrative services on our behalf may not perform as anticipated, which could have an adverse effect on our business and results of operations. We rely on the use of third-party providers to deliver contracted services in a broad range of areas, including administration of servicing of certain policies and contracts and investment assets, investment accounting, information technology and operational functions, finance and actuarial services, claims administration, human resources and information technology services related to infrastructure, application development and maintenance. In addition, we have engaged with BlackRock for use of its investment management and risk analytics technology, Aladdin. The implementation of Aladdin is comprised of multiple workstreams that are complex and require significant time and resource prioritization. While we have achieved key milestones in the implementation of the technology, there could be delays due to lack of sufficient resources to execute on a timely basis, inefficiencies stemming from changes that may be required to the program or sequencing, failure to meet operational and financial targets due to additional priorities or other factors. These risks may impair our ability to achieve anticipated improvements in our businesses or may otherwise harm our operations which could materially and adversely affect our businesses, financial condition and operations.
Further, we have engaged Blackstone and BlackRock to serve as our investment managers for certain asset classes. For information regarding our reliance on Blackstone and BlackRock as a third-party asset managers, see Investment Portfolio and Concentration of Investments – “We rely on investment management and advisory arrangements with third-party investment managers for the majority of our investment portfolio. The historical performance of Blackstone, BlackRock or any other asset manager we engage should not be considered as indicative of the future results of our investment portfolio, our future results or any returns expected on AIG Common Stock” above.
Some of the third-party providers we use are located outside the U.S., which exposes us to business disruptions and political risks inherent to conducting business outside of the U.S. We periodically negotiate provisions and renewals of these relationships, and there can be no assurance that such terms will remain acceptable to us, such third parties or regulators. If such third-party providers experience disruptions, fail to meet applicable licensure requirements, do not perform as anticipated or in compliance with applicable laws and regulations, terminate or fail to renew our relationships, or such third-party providers in turn rely on services from another third-party provider, who experiences such disruptions, licensure failures, nonperformance or noncompliance, termination or non-renewal of its contractual relationships, we may experience operational difficulties, an inability to meet obligations (including, but not limited to, contractual, legal, regulatory or policyholder obligations), a loss of business, increased costs or reputational harm, compromises to our data integrity, or suffer other negative consequences, all of which may have a material adverse effect on our business, consolidated results of operations, liquidity and financial condition. Third parties performing regulated activities on our behalf, such as sales and servicing of insurance products, pose a heightened risk as we may be held accountable for third-party conduct that is not in compliance with applicable law.
For information regarding cyber risk arising from third-party providers, see Business and Operations – “We are exposed to certain risks if we are unable to maintain the availability of our critical technology systems and data and safeguard the confidentiality and integrity of our data, which could compromise our ability to conduct business and adversely affect our consolidated business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity” above.
We may experience difficulty in marketing and distributing products through our current and future distribution channels and the use of third parties may result in additional liabilities. Although we distribute our products through a wide variety of distribution channels, we maintain relationships with a number of key distributors, which results in certain distributor concentration. Distributors have in the past, and may in the future, elect to renegotiate the terms of existing relationships, such that those terms may not remain attractive or acceptable to us, limit the products they sell, including the types of products offered by us, or otherwise reduce or terminate their distribution relationships with us, with or without cause. This could be due to various reasons, such as industry consolidation of distributors or other industry changes that increase the competition for access to distributors, developments in laws or regulations that affect our business or industry, including the marketing and sale of our products and services, adverse developments in our business, the distribution of products with features that do not meet minimum thresholds set by the distributor, strategic decisions that impact our business, adverse rating agency actions or concerns about market-related risks.
Alternatively, renegotiated terms may not be attractive or acceptable to distributors, or we may terminate one or more distribution agreements due to, for example, a loss of confidence in, or a change in control of, one of the third-party distributors. An interruption or reduction in certain key relationships could materially affect our ability to market our products and could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.
Key distribution partners could merge, consolidate, change their business models in ways that affect how our products are sold, or terminate their distribution contracts with us, or new distribution channels could emerge and adversely impact the effectiveness of our distribution efforts. An increase in bank, wirehouse and broker-dealer consolidation activity could increase competition for access to distributors, result in greater distribution expenses and impair our ability to market certain of our products through these channels.
| AIG | 2022 Form 10-K | 31 |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
Also, if we are unsuccessful in attracting, retaining and training key distribution partners, or are unable to maintain our distribution relationships, our sales could decline, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity. In addition, substantially all of our distributors are permitted to sell our competitors’ products. If our competitors offer products that are more attractive than ours or pay higher commission rates to the distribution partners than we do or for other reasons outside of our control, these distribution partners could concentrate their efforts in selling our competitors’ products instead of ours.
In addition, we can, in certain circumstances, be held responsible for the actions of our third-party distributors, including broker-dealers, registered representatives, insurance agents and agencies, marketing organizations, and their respective employees, agents and representatives, in connection with the marketing and sale of our products by such parties, including the security of their operations and their handling of confidential information and personal data, in a manner that is deemed not compliant with applicable laws and regulations. This is particularly acute with respect to unaffiliated distributors where we may not be able to directly monitor or control the manner in which our products are sold through third-party firms despite our training and compliance programs. Further, misconduct by employees, agents and representatives of our broker-dealer subsidiaries in the sale of our products could also result in violations of laws by us or our subsidiaries, regulatory sanctions and serious reputational or financial harm to us. The precautions we take to prevent and detect the foregoing activities may not be effective. If our products are distributed to customers for whom they are unsuitable or distributed in a manner alleged to be inappropriate, or third-party distributors experience a security or data breach due to deficient operational controls, we could suffer reputational and/or other financial harm to our business.
For information regarding suitability standards, see Item 1. Business – Regulation – Regulatory Regimes – United States.
Failure to effectively execute on AIG 200 could have a material effect on our operations or financial condition. In 2019, we announced AIG 200, our global, multi-year and enterprise-wide program involving transformational change across the Company. AIG 200 is comprised of ten operational programs mapped against four core objectives that are complex and require significant investment and resource prioritization. While we have already reached our exit run-rate savings goal associated with the program, we still may not fully achieve some or all of the expected benefits from these operational programs. In addition, there could be delays in execution across the programs, particularly with respect to implementation of technology platforms, lack of sufficient resources to execute on a timely basis, inefficiencies stemming from changes that may be required to programs or sequencing, failure to meet operational and financial targets due to additional priorities or other factors, and the inability to secure regulatory approvals, if and when needed. These risks may impair our ability to achieve anticipated improvements in our businesses or may otherwise harm our operations which could materially and adversely affect our businesses, financial condition and cash flow.
Business or asset acquisitions and dispositions may expose us to certain risks. The completion of any business or asset acquisition or disposition is subject to certain risks, including those relating to the receipt of required regulatory approvals, the terms and conditions of regulatory approvals including any financial accommodations required by regulators, our ability to satisfy such terms, conditions and accommodations, the occurrence of any event, change or other circumstances that could give rise to the termination of a transaction and the risk that parties may not be willing or able to satisfy the conditions to a transaction. As a result, there can be no assurance that any business or asset acquisition or disposition will be completed as contemplated, or at all, or regarding the expected timing of the completion of the acquisition or disposition. For example, there can be no certainty as to the sale of our remaining stake in Corebridge nor the timing, pricing or terms thereof.
Once we complete acquisitions or dispositions, there can be no assurance that we will realize the anticipated economic, strategic or other benefits of any transaction. For example, the integration of businesses we acquire may not be as successful as we anticipate or there may be undisclosed risks present in such businesses. Acquisitions involve a number of risks, including operational, strategic, financial, accounting, legal, compliance and tax risks. Difficulties integrating an acquired business may result in the acquired business performing differently than we expected (including through the loss of customers) or in our failure to realize anticipated expense-related efficiencies. Our existing businesses could also be negatively impacted by acquisitions. Risks resulting from future acquisitions may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. In connection with a business or asset disposition, we may also hold a concentrated position in securities of the acquirer as part of the consideration, which subjects us to risks related to the price of equity securities and our ability to monetize such securities. We have also provided and may provide financial guarantees and indemnities in connection with the businesses we have sold or may sell, as described in greater detail in Note 15 to the Consolidated Financial Statements. While we do not currently believe that claims under these indemnities will be material, it is possible that significant indemnity claims could be made against us. If such a claim or claims were successful, it could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations, cash flows and liquidity.
For additional information regarding the risks associated with AIG’s separation of its Life and Retirement business, see Business and Operations – “No assurances can be given that the separation of our Life and Retirement business will be completed or as to the specific terms or timing thereof. In addition, we may not achieve the expected benefits of the separation and will have continuing equity market exposure to Corebridge until we fully divest our stake” above.
| 32 | AIG | 2022 Form 10-K |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
Significant legal or regulatory proceedings may adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition. In the normal course of business, we face significant risk from regulatory and governmental investigations and civil actions, litigation and other forms of dispute resolution in various domestic and foreign jurisdictions. In our insurance and reinsurance operations, we frequently engage in litigation and arbitration concerning the scope of coverage under insurance and reinsurance contracts, and face litigation and arbitration in which our subsidiaries defend or indemnify their insureds under insurance and reinsurance contracts.
Additionally, from time to time, various regulatory and governmental agencies review the transactions and practices of AIG and our subsidiaries in connection with industry-wide and other inquiries into, among other matters, the business practices of current and former operating insurance subsidiaries. Such investigations, inquiries or examinations have and could develop into administrative, civil or criminal proceedings or enforcement actions, in which remedies could include fines, penalties, restitution or alterations in our business practices, and could result in additional expenses, limitations on certain business activities and reputational damage.
AIG, our subsidiaries and their respective officers and directors are also subject to, or may become subject to, a variety of additional types of legal disputes brought by holders of AIG securities, customers, employees and others, alleging, among other things, breach of contractual or fiduciary duties, bad faith, indemnification and violations of federal and state statutes and regulations. Certain of these matters may also involve potentially significant risk of loss due to the possibility of significant jury awards and settlements, punitive damages or other penalties. Many of these matters are also highly complex and seek recovery on behalf of a class or similarly large number of plaintiffs. It is therefore inherently difficult to predict the size or scope of potential future losses arising from them, and developments in these matters could have a material adverse effect on our consolidated financial condition or consolidated results of operations
For information regarding certain legal proceedings, see Notes 15 and 21 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
Increasing scrutiny and evolving expectations from investors, customers, regulators, policymakers and other stakeholders regarding environmental, social and governance matters may adversely affect our reputation or otherwise adversely impact our business and results of operations. There is increasing scrutiny and evolving expectations from investors, customers, regulators, policymakers and other stakeholders on ESG practices and disclosures, including those related to environmental stewardship, climate change, diversity, equity and inclusion, racial justice and workplace conduct. These standards and expectations may also, as a whole, reflect contrasting or conflicting values or agendas. Regulators have imposed and likely will continue to impose ESG- related rules and guidance, which may conflict with one another and impose additional costs on us or expose us to new or additional risks. Moreover, certain organizations that provide information to investors have developed ratings for evaluating companies on their approach to different ESG matters, and unfavorable ratings of our company or our industries may lead to negative investor sentiment and the diversion of investment to other companies or industries. In 2022, we committed to reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions across our underwriting and investments portfolios by 2050, or sooner. If we are unable to meet targets, standards, or expectations, whether established by us or third parties, it could result in adverse publicity, reputational harm, or loss of customer and/or investor confidence, which could adversely affect our business and results of operations.
For information on the effects of climate change on our business, see Reserves and Exposures – “Climate change may adversely affect our business and financial condition” above.
COVID-19 has adversely affected and may continue to adversely affect our global business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity, and its ultimate impact will depend on future developments that are uncertain and cannot be predicted.
While the impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic are still evolving, it has caused significant societal disruption and has had adverse economic impacts on our business, such as volatility in the capital markets, disruptions in the labor market, supply chain disruption, mortality increases as compared to pricing expectations and most recently, an inflationary environment. We cannot estimate the full extent to which the pandemic may continue to cause or exacerbate certain risks to our global business, including those discussed herein.
Within our investment portfolio, there is exposure to certain segments of the economy, including real estate and real estate-related investments, which exposes us to negative impacts from the deferral of mortgage payments, renegotiated commercial mortgage loans or outright mortgage defaults and potential acceleration of macro trends such as work from home and online shopping, which may negatively impact certain industries, such as brick-and-mortar retail. Moreover, market volatility due to COVID-19 has created and may continue to create dislocations, decreases or variations in observable market activity or availability of information used in the valuation of our assets and liabilities, which could negatively impair the estimates and assumptions used to run our businesses or result in greater variability and subjectivity in our investment decisions.
| AIG | 2022 Form 10-K | 33 |
ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
Our insurance businesses have and may continue to experience increased claim volume. Beginning in March 2020 and continuing through 2022, we experienced an increase in mortality claims as compared to our historical pricing assumptions, which may continue until the COVID-19 pandemic subsides in its entirety, and decreased demand for certain of our insurance product lines. In addition, COVID-19 adversely affected our premiums and deposits in some of our insurance lines, including our Life and Retirement products. Further, our policies with premium adjustment features tied to exposure levels, as is the case in certain specialty and casualty lines, may be triggered, resulting in premium reductions. We may also incur higher expenses in our insurance businesses and higher legal costs as a result of coverage disputes, including class actions and other proceedings that have been or may in the future be filed against us, our insureds, or others, seeking coverage for COVID 19-related losses or alleging bad-faith denials of coverage for such losses.
Due to the scope, severity and extended duration of the pandemic, reinsurance has been and may be more difficult or costly to obtain in general or for certain types of coverage going forward. In addition, reinsurance terms and conditions may change whereby the coverage provided may not be the same or similar to the reinsurance terms and conditions currently available in the reinsurance market.
Certain pre-existing operational risks have been and may continue to be exacerbated, notably with respect to potential phishing or other cybersecurity-related events and our increased reliance on technology, including technology of our employees and service providers. Other pre-existing operational risks, such as privacy incidents, fraud, operational resilience and risks related to the operations and resiliency of our vendors, third-party providers and other counterparties, may also be exacerbated. In addition, remote or hybrid work may negatively impact our culture and employees’ morale, which could result in greater turnover, lower productivity and greater operational risks.
Due to the evolving and disruptive nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, we could experience other potential impacts, including, but not limited to, potential impairment charges to the carrying amounts of goodwill, deferred tax assets, increased reserves to levels that are difficult to accurately estimate and increased morbidity and mortality expectations from longer term consequences of COVID-19 infections. Further, new and potentially unforeseen risks beyond those described above and in other risk factors herein may arise as a result of the pandemic and the actions taken by governmental and regulatory authorities to mitigate its impact.
We may not be able to protect our intellectual property and may be subject to infringement claims. Effective intellectual property rights protection, including in the form of contractual rights, copyright, trademark, patent and trade secret laws, may be unavailable, limited, or subject to change in some countries where we do or plan to do business. Third parties may infringe or misappropriate our intellectual property. We have, and may in the future, litigate to protect our intellectual property. Any such litigation may be costly and may not be successful. Additionally, third parties may have patents or other protections that could be infringed by our products, methods, processes or services or which could limit our ability to offer certain product features. Consequently, we may also be subject to costly litigation in the event that another party alleges that we infringe upon their intellectual property rights. Any such intellectual property litigation could prove to be both costly and unsuccessful result in significant expense, damages, and in some circumstances we could be enjoined from providing certain products or services to our customers. Alternatively, we could be required to enter into costly licensing arrangements with third parties to resolve infringement or contractual disputes. The loss of intellectual property protection or the inability to secure or enforce the protection of our intellectual property assets could harm our reputation and have a material adverse effect on our business and our ability to compete.
EMPLOYEES AND COMPETITION
Employee error and misconduct may be difficult to detect and prevent and may result in reputational damage and significant losses. There have been a number of cases involving fraud or other misconduct by employees in recent years and we are exposed to the risk that employee fraud or misconduct could occur. Our informational technology, human resources and compliance departments work collaboratively to monitor for fraud and conduct extensive training for employees. However, employee fraud or misconduct may still occur. Instances of fraud, illegal acts, errors, failure to document transactions properly or to obtain proper internal authorization, misuse of customer or proprietary/confidential information, or failure to comply with regulatory requirements or our internal policies may result in losses and/or reputational damage.
Competition for employees in our industry is intense, and managing key employee succession is critical to our success. We may not be able to retain and attract key employees and other highly skilled employees we need to support our businesses. Our success depends, in large part, on our ability to retain and attract key and other highly skilled employees. Due to the intense competition in our industry for key employees, we may be unable to retain or hire such employees. In addition, we may experience higher than expected employee turnover and difficulty attracting new employees as a result of uncertainty from strategic actions and organizational and operational changes. Losing any of our key employees also could have a material adverse effect on our operations given their skills, knowledge of our business, years of industry experience and the potential difficulty of promptly finding qualified replacements. Our business and consolidated results of operations could be materially adversely affected if we are unsuccessful in retaining and attracting key employees.
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ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
In addition, we would be adversely affected if we fail to adequately plan for the succession of our Chief Executive Officer, other members of senior management and other key employees. While we have succession plans and long-term compensation plans designed to retain our employees, our succession plans may not operate effectively and our compensation plans cannot guarantee that the services of these employees will continue to be available to us.
We face intense competition in each of our business lines, and technological changes may present new and intensified challenges to our businesses. Our businesses operate in highly competitive environments, both domestically and overseas. Our principal competitors are other large multinational insurance organizations, as well as banks, investment banks and other nonbank financial institutions.
General Insurance and Life and Retirement compete through a combination of risk acceptance criteria, product pricing, and terms and conditions. Reductions of our credit ratings or IFS ratings or negative publicity may make it more difficult to compete to retain existing customers and to maintain our historical levels of business with existing customers, counterparties and distribution relationships. A decline in our position as to any one or more of these factors could adversely affect our profitability.
Technological advancements and innovation in the insurance industry, including those related to evolving customer preferences, the digitization of insurance products and services, acceleration of automated underwriting, and electronic processes present competitive risks. Technological advancements and innovation are occurring in distribution, underwriting, recordkeeping, advisory, claims and operations at a rapid pace, and that pace may increase, particularly as companies increasingly use data analytics and technology as part of their business strategy. Additional costs may also be incurred in order to implement changes to automate procedures critical to our distribution channels in order to increase flexibility of access to our services and products. While we seek opportunities to leverage technological advancements and innovation for our customers’ benefit, our business and results of operations could be materially and adversely affected if external technological advancements or innovation, or the regulation of technological advancements or innovation, limit our ability to retain existing business, write new business at adequate rates or on appropriate terms, render our insurance products less suitable or impact our ability to adapt or deploy current products as quickly and effectively as our competitors.
REGULATION
Our businesses are heavily regulated and changes in laws and regulations may affect our operations, increase our insurance subsidiary capital requirements or reduce our profitability**.** Our operations generally, and our insurance and reinsurance subsidiaries in particular, are subject to extensive and potentially conflicting laws and regulations in the jurisdictions in which we operate. Our business and financial condition are also subject to supervision and regulation by authorities in the various jurisdictions in which we do business. Federal, state and foreign regulators also periodically review and investigate our insurance and reinsurance businesses, including AIG-specific and industry-wide practices. The primary purpose of insurance regulation is the protection of our insurance and reinsurance contract holders. The extent of regulation on our insurance and reinsurance business varies across the jurisdictions in which we operate, but generally is governed by laws that delegate regulatory, supervisory and administrative authority to insurance departments and similar regulatory agencies. The laws and regulations that apply to our business and operations generally grant regulatory agencies and/or self-regulatory organizations broad rulemaking and enforcement powers, including the power to regulate the issuance, sale and distribution of our products, the manner in which we underwrite our policies, the delivery of our services, the nature or extent of disclosures that we give our customers, the compensation of our distribution partners, the manner in which we handle claims on our policies and the administration of our policies and contracts, as well as the power to limit or restrict our business for failure to comply with applicable laws and regulations. Our Life and Retirement companies and their distributors are also subject to laws and regulations governing the standard of care applicable to sales of our products, the provision of advice to our customers and the manner in which certain conflicts of interest arising from or related to such sales or giving of advice are to be addressed. In addition, federal and state securities laws and regulations apply to certain of our insurance products that are considered ‘securities’ under such laws, including our variable annuity contracts, variable life insurance policies and the separate accounts that issue them, as well as our broker-dealer, investment advisor and mutual fund operations.
We strive to comply with laws and regulations applicable to our businesses, operations and legal entities, including maintenance of all required licenses and approvals. The application of and compliance with such laws and regulations may be subject to interpretation, evolving industry practices and regulatory expectations that could result in increased compliance costs. The relevant authorities may not agree with our interpretation of these laws and regulations, including, for example, our implementation of new or revised requirements related to capital, accounting treatment or reserving such as those governing PBR, or with our policies and procedures adopted to address evolving industry practices or meet regulatory expectations. Such authorities’ interpretations and views may also change from time to time. It is also possible that the laws, regulations and interpretations across various jurisdictions in which we do business may conflict with one another and affect how we do business in the United States and globally. If we are found not to have complied with applicable legal or regulatory requirements, these authorities could preclude or temporarily suspend us from carrying on some or all of our activities, impose substantial administrative penalties such as fines or require corrective actions, which individually or in the aggregate could interrupt our operations and materially and adversely affect our reputation, business, results of operations and financial condition. Additionally, when such authorities’ interpretation of new or revised requirements related to capital, accounting
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ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
treatment and/or valuation manual or reserving (such as PBR) materially differs from ours, we have incurred or may incur higher operating costs, or sales of products subject to such requirements or treatment may be affected.
Regulators in jurisdictions in which we do business have adopted RBC, solvency and liquidity standards applicable to insurers and reinsurers operating in their jurisdiction. Failure to comply with such capital (including, in the U.S., RBC), solvency, liquidity and similar requirements, or as otherwise may be agreed by us or one of our insurance company subsidiaries with an insurance regulator, would generally permit the insurance regulator to take certain regulatory actions that could materially impact the affected company’s operations. Those actions range from requiring an insurer to submit a plan describing how it would regain a specified RBC or solvency ratio to a mandatory regulatory takeover of the company. The NAIC recently adopted, and the IAIS is developing and testing, methodologies for assessing group-wide regulatory capital, which might evolve into more formal group-wide capital requirements on certain insurance companies and/or their holding companies that may augment state-law RBC standards, and similar international standards, that apply at the legal entity level, and such capital calculations may be made, in whole or in part, on bases other than the statutory statements of our insurance and reinsurance subsidiaries. Furthermore, efforts to address systemic risks within the financial services industry, including insurance services, may lead regulators to apply new or heightened standards and safeguards for activities or practices that we and other insurers or other nonbank financial services companies, including insurers, engage in. In addition to the regulation of specific activities, the Financial Stability Oversight Council continues to have authority under Dodd-Frank to determine that certain nonbank financial companies be designated as nonbank SIFIs subject to supervision by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and enhanced prudential standards. We cannot predict the effect that any such initiatives or heightened standards may have on our business, results of operations, liquidity and financial condition.
We also cannot predict the impact that laws and regulations adopted in foreign jurisdictions may have on the financial markets generally or our businesses, results of operations or cash flows. It is possible such laws and regulations, and our satisfaction of the relevant criteria and standard-setting initiatives by the FSB and the IAIS, including, but not limited to, the IAIS’ Common Framework for the Supervision of IAIGs, a holistic framework for the assessment and mitigation of systemic risk and the development and refinement of a risk-based global ICS, Solvency II and European Data Protection Board Cross Border Data Transfer in the EU, may significantly alter our business practices. For example, regulators have imposed and may continue to impose new requirements or issue new guidance aimed at addressing or mitigating climate change-related risks. They may also limit our ability to engage in capital or liability management, require us to raise additional capital, and impose burdensome requirements and additional costs. It is also possible that the laws and regulations adopted in foreign jurisdictions will differ from one another, and that they could be inconsistent with the laws and regulations of other jurisdictions in which we operate, including the United States.
For additional information on our regulatory environment, see Item 1. Business – Regulation.
For information regarding the effects of regulations related to climate change on our business, see Reserves and Exposures – “Climate change may adversely affect our business and financial condition” above.
For information regarding the regulatory response to the COVID-19 pandemic, see Business and Operations – “COVID-19 has affected and may continue to adversely affect our global business, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity, and its ultimate impact will depend on future developments that are uncertain and cannot be predicted” above.
New laws and regulations or new interpretations of current laws and regulations, both domestically and internationally, may affect our businesses, results of operations, financial condition and ability to compete effectively. Legislators, regulators and self-regulatory organizations have in the past, and may in the future, periodically consider various proposals that may affect or restrict, among other things, our business practices, product designs and distribution relationships, how we market, sell or service certain products we offer, our capital, reserving and accounting requirements, or the profitability of certain of our businesses.
Further, new laws and regulations may affect or significantly limit our ability to conduct certain businesses at all, including proposals relating to restrictions on the type of activities in which financial institutions are permitted to engage. These proposals or changes in legislation or regulation could also impose additional taxes on a limited subset of financial institutions and insurance companies (either based on size, activities, geography or other criteria), limit our ability to engage in capital or liability management, require us to raise additional capital, and impose burdensome requirements and additional costs. It is uncertain whether and how these and other such proposals or changes in legislation or regulation would apply to us, those who sell or service our products, or our competitors or how they could impact our ability to compete effectively, as well as our business, consolidated results of operations, liquidity and financial condition.
An “ownership change” could limit our ability to utilize tax loss and credit carryforwards to offset future taxable income. As of December 31, 2022, on a U.S. GAAP basis, AIG Parent had U.S. federal net operating loss carryforwards of approximately $24.8 billion and $22 million in foreign tax credits. Our ability to use these tax attributes to offset future taxable income may be significantly limited if we experience an “ownership change” as defined in Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code. In general, an ownership change will occur when the percentage of AIG Parent's ownership (measured by value) by one or more “5-percent shareholders” (as defined in the Internal Revenue Code) has increased by more than 50 percentage points over the lowest percentage owned by such shareholders at any time during the prior three years (calculated on a rolling basis). An entity that experiences an ownership change generally will be subject to an annual limitation on its utilization of pre-ownership change tax loss
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and credit carryforwards equal to the equity value of the corporation immediately before the ownership change, multiplied by the long-term, tax-exempt rate posted monthly by the IRS (AFR) (subject to certain adjustments). The annual limitation would be increased each year to the extent that there is an unused limitation in a prior year. The limitation on our ability to utilize tax loss and credit carryforwards arising from an ownership change under Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code would be dependent on the value of our equity and the AFR at the time of any ownership change. If we were to experience an “ownership change,” it is possible that a significant portion of our tax loss and credit carryforwards could expire before we would be able to use them to offset future taxable income.
AIG’s previous Tax Asset Protection Plan (the TAP Plan), which was designed to reduce the likelihood of an “ownership change,” was not extended and thus expired in accordance with its terms on December 11, 2022. The protective amendment (the Protective Amendment) to the Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation, which is designed to prevent certain transfers of AIG Common Stock that could result in an “ownership change,” will expire in accordance with its terms on May 13, 2023. If AIG were to experience an “ownership change,” it will no longer have the benefit of the TAP Plan or the Protective Amendment after their respective expiration dates, which would limit its ability to utilize its then remaining tax attributes to offset future tax liability.
New and proposed changes to tax laws could increase our corporate taxes or make some of our products less attractive to consumers. The recently enacted Inflation Reduction Act (the IRA), which establishes a new 15 percent corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT) on adjusted book income (of corporations that have an average adjusted book income in excess of $1 billion over a three tax year period) for tax years beginning after December 31, 2022 may impact AIG’s after-tax earnings or cash flow. AIG may be required to pay tax equal to 15% of AIG’s pre-tax financial statement income, as adjusted by the IRA, despite AIG’s U.S. federal net operating loss carryforwards and foreign tax credits.
The IRA also includes a nondeductible 1% excise tax on the repurchase of corporate stock for transactions occurring in taxable years after December 31, 2022. The 1% excise tax on share repurchases would increase AIG’s cost of share repurchases.
The current U.S. administration and Congressional leadership have proposed additional changes to the U.S. corporate and international tax systems, as well as increasing the taxation of U.S. individuals, including capital gains taxation. An increase in the statutory U.S. federal corporate income tax rate will negatively impact AIG’s future after-tax earnings. The administration and Congressional leadership have also proposed changes to complex provisions in the U.S. international tax system, including the base erosion and anti-abuse tax (BEAT) and global intangible low-taxed income (GILTI). These changes could impact AIG’s after-tax earnings or cash flow. Furthermore, there is the possibility of further regulatory guidance on certain aspects of the BEAT and GILTI, which could impact the amounts recorded with respect to these international provisions, possibly materially. In addition to changing the taxation of corporations in general, there are proposals for increases in tax rates for individuals, capital gains, and changes to the estate tax. These changes could impact demand in the U.S. for life insurance and annuity contracts.
New tax laws outside the U.S., in particular those enacted in response to proposals by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, could make substantive changes to the global international tax regime. Such changes could increase our global tax costs. AIG continues to monitor and assess the impact of such proposals.
Finally, it is possible that tax laws will be further changed either in a technical corrections bill or entirely new legislation. It remains difficult to predict whether or when there will be any tax law changes or further guidance by the authorities in the U.S. or elsewhere in the world. New or proposed changes to tax laws may have a material adverse effect on our business, consolidated results of operations, liquidity and financial condition, as the impact of proposals on our business can vary substantially depending upon the specific changes or further guidance made and how the changes or guidance are implemented by the authorities.
For additional information, see Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Consolidated Results of Operations – U.S. Tax Law Changes.
ESTIMATES AND ASSUMPTIONS
Estimates or assumptions used in the preparation of financial statements and modeled results used in various areas of our business may differ materially from actual experience. Our financial statements are prepared in conformity with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (U.S. GAAP), which requires the application of accounting policies that often involve a significant degree of judgment. The accounting policies that we consider most dependent on the application of estimates and assumptions, and therefore may be viewed as critical accounting estimates, are described in Item 7. MD&A – Critical Accounting Estimates. These accounting estimates require the use of assumptions, some of which are highly uncertain at the time of estimation. These estimates are based on judgment, current facts and circumstances, and, when applicable, internally developed models. Therefore, actual results may differ from these estimates, possibly in the near term, and could have a material effect on our financial statements.
In addition, we employ models to price products, calculate reserves and future policy benefits and value assets and execute hedging strategies, as well as to assess risk and determine statutory capital requirements, among other uses. These models are complex and rely on estimates and projections that are inherently uncertain, may use incomplete, outdated or incorrect data or assumptions and may not operate as intended. To the extent that any of our operating practices and procedures do not accurately produce, or reproduce, data that we use to conduct any or all aspects of our business, such differences may negatively impact our business,
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ITEM 1A | Risk Factors
reputation, results of operations, and financial condition. For example, modeling for man-made catastrophes, such as terrorism and cyber events, is especially difficult and less reliable given such models are in the early stages of development and therefore, not widely adopted or available. For our Life and Retirement companies, significant changes in policyholder behavior assumptions such as lapses, surrenders and withdrawal rates as well as the amount of withdrawals, fund performance, equity market returns and volatility, interest rate levels, the health habits of the insured population, technologies and treatments for disease or disability, the economic environment, or other factors could negatively impact our assumptions and estimates. To the extent that any of our modeling practices do not accurately produce, or reproduce, data that we use to conduct any or all aspects of our business, such errors may negatively impact our business, reputation, results of operations and financial condition.
Changes in accounting principles and financial reporting requirements will impact our consolidated results of operations and financial condition. Our financial statements are prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP, which are periodically revised. Accordingly, from time to time, we are required to adopt new or revised accounting standards issued by recognized authoritative bodies, including the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB).
The FASB has revised the accounting standards for certain long-duration insurance contracts. The FASB issued Accounting Standards Update No. 2018-12 – Targeted Improvements to the Accounting for Long-Duration Contracts, which became effective as of January 1, 2023 and significantly changes the accounting measurements and disclosures for long-duration insurance contracts, which primarily relates to our life and annuity products as well as certain accident and health products, among others. The implementation of these changes has imposed and will continue to impose special demands on us in the areas of governance, employee training, internal controls and disclosure and affect how we manage our business, all of which will impact our consolidated results of operations, liquidity and financial condition. In addition, implementation of the changes could impact our products, in-force management and asset liability management strategies and have other implications on operations and technology.
The adoption of this newly issued standard will, and other future accounting standards may, impact our reported consolidated results of operations, liquidity and reported financial condition and may cause investors to perceive greater volatility in our financial results, negatively impacting our level of investor interest and investment.
For information regarding the impact of accounting pronouncements that have been issued but are not yet required to be implemented, see Note 2 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
If our businesses do not perform well and/or their estimated fair values decline, we may be required to recognize an impairment of our goodwill or establish an additional valuation allowance against the deferred income tax assets, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. Goodwill represents the excess of the amounts we paid to acquire subsidiaries and other businesses over the fair value of their net assets at the date of acquisition. We test goodwill at least annually for impairment and conduct interim qualitative assessments on a periodic basis. Impairment testing is performed based upon estimates of the fair value of the “reporting unit” to which the goodwill relates. In 2022, for substantially all of the reporting units we elected to bypass the qualitative assessment of whether goodwill impairment may exist and, therefore, performed quantitative assessments that supported a conclusion that the fair value of all of the reporting units tested exceeded their book value. Our goodwill balance was $3.9 billion at December 31, 2022. If it is determined that goodwill has been impaired, we must write down goodwill by the amount of the impairment, with a corresponding charge to net income (loss). These write-downs could have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations, liquidity and financial condition. For additional information on goodwill impairment, see Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Critical Accounting Estimates – Goodwill Impairment and Note 11 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
Deferred income tax represents the tax effect of the differences between the book and tax basis of assets and liabilities. As of December 31, 2022, we had net deferred tax assets, after valuation allowance, of $14.8 billion, related to federal, foreign, and state and local jurisdictions. If, based on available evidence, it is more likely than not that the deferred tax asset will not be realized, then a valuation allowance must be established with a corresponding charge to net income, which such action we have taken from time to time. Such charges could have a material adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations, liquidity and financial condition. For additional information on deferred tax assets, see Part II, Item 7. MD&A – Critical Accounting Estimates – Income Taxes and Note 21 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
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ITEM 1B | Unresolved Staff Comments
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